Economic and mathematical methods and models
UDC 65.012.123
HER. Abushova, S.B. Suloeva
METHODS AND MODELS OF MODERN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
E.E. Abushova, S.B. Suloeva METHODS AND MODELS OF MODERN STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
The main definitions are considered and methods and models are proposed that can be used in the system of modern strategic analysis.
ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT; MACROSEDA; MICRO ENVIRONMENT; INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT; STRATEGIC DECISIONS; PORTER MODEL.
In this article the basic definitions are considered and methods and models are proposed that can be used in the system of contemporary strategic analysis.
ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT; MACRO ENVIRONMENT; MICRO ENVIRONMENT; INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT; STRATEGIC DECISION; MODEL OF PORTER.
In modern market conditions, a dynamically changing environment, tough competition and unpredictability of economic actions of the subjects of market relations, the solution of only current problems becomes ineffective for the enterprise. More and more urgent are the issues related to strategic development enterprises and making strategic management decisions. For the correct choice and adoption of strategic management decisions, the development of an effective enterprise strategy and the leveling of the negative impact of environmental factors, it is necessary to have sufficient "the right information at the right time." In this regard, the conduct of strategic analysis is now becoming simply necessary.
By what methods and models is it preferable to conduct a strategic analysis in order to comprehensively assess the factors of the external and internal environment that affect the activities of the enterprise, identify the key success factors and take effective
managerial decisions on choosing a strategy - solving these issues and we will ask ourselves in this article.
Review of modern methods. Strategic environmental analysis - initial process strategic management providing a framework for defining the mission, objectives of the firm and formulating strategy. The analysis of the environment involves the study of its three components: the macroenvironment, the microenvironment and the internal environment of the organization. Analysis of the macro- and microenvironment is aimed at identifying opportunities and threats of the external environment. The result of the analysis is the identification of the key success factors.
Key success factors (KFU) are control variables common to all enterprises in the industry, the implementation of which makes it possible to improve the competitive position of an enterprise in the industry. Key success factors may include consumer properties product, experience and knowledge, competitive opportunities, success in the market, as well as specific areas of the enterprise, allowing it
successfully resist competitors and achieve success. In the process of strategic analysis, KFUs of a given industry are first identified, after which measures are developed to master the most important of them in order to succeed in this area of activity.
The analysis of the internal environment reveals the opportunities, the potential that the firm can count on in the competitive struggle in the process of achieving its goals, as well as the weaknesses of the organization. As a result, the company's core business capabilities or core competencies should be identified.
Competence - the properties possessed by all or most of the enterprises in the industry, necessary to participate or survive in it. Competence includes skills, technology, know-how, etc.
Core competence - key properties specific to a particular enterprise, unique or at least rare, difficult to replicate, which are the main reason for competitive advantage. Unlike physical assets, core competencies, when applied or shared, are not destroyed, but developed.
Thanks to its core competencies, the company is able to produce products that customers value more than competitors' products. This is achieved through the best knowledge, ownership of information, the availability of skills that surpass those of competitors, the use of the latest technologies, the presence of appropriate relationships between structural units, the networks created by the company and the gained reputation.
Strategic analysis is expressed in the search and selection of strategic alternatives. According to the prevailing views, strategic analysis is aimed at finding in each process the most stable patterns and trends that can play a role in the future, and predicting on their basis indicators of production and economic activity. The most important tasks of strategic analysis are the justification of the country
strategic plans, assessment of their expected implementation, as well as providing information for making strategic management decisions.
As a result of the analysis of the activities of the enterprise, it is necessary to find out in what position it is, as well as how achievable the strategic goals will be. Since we are talking about strategic goals, the main attention is focused on the external conditions of activity, namely, first of all, an analysis of the attractiveness of the external environment, the behavior of competitors and consumers is carried out.
External review should be performed at the level of the organization as a whole. Carrying out such diagnostics at the highest corporate level not only avoids duplication in work, but also contributes to the fact that strategic decisions at all levels of the organization are made on the basis of the same vision of the outside world.
Internal strategic analysis should be carried out at the level where control over the company's resources is exercised, and where decisions about their effective use are actually made.
The main purpose of diagnosing the current situation is to identify constraints and opportunities that need to be taken into account when planning for the future. For this purpose, an analysis of the past situation is of little value. You need information about the current moment and about the likely changes during the period indicated by the planning horizon. It is also important that the assessment of the situation is carried out in the context of a competitive relationship.
The external environment is a set of external actors and factors that actively influence the position, prospects and efficiency of the organization. The external environment of the enterprise is usually divided into macro- and microenvironments.
Macroenvironment includes socio-demographic, technological, economic and political factors. The nature of these factors is such that companies are unable to influence them. In this case, it is not necessary to analyze every facet of the macroenvironment.
Moreover, this cannot be done in full. Therefore, in real life, the area of interest for organizations is narrowed to a "significant external macroenvironment." The meaningful macroenvironment defines the boundaries of the general environment in terms of analytical goals. They are based on key aspects that significantly affect a particular organization. Therefore, by the macroenvironment we will mean precisely its significant part.
The microenvironment is the environment that directly surrounds the company, that is, those areas with which the organization interacts or which it itself influences. The microenvironment contains the competitors, suppliers, customers of the company, and the resources necessary for the successful operation of organizations.
The internal environment of an enterprise is a set of characteristics of an organization and internal subjects that affect the position and prospects of the firm.
To analyze and predict the development of the macroenvironment, we recommend using PEST (STEP) - an analysis whose purpose is to track (monitor) changes in the macroenvironment in four key areas: P - Political (political and legal), E - Economic (economic), S - Sociocultural -cultural), T - Technologcalforces (technological) and identifying trends, events that are not under the control of the enterprise, but that affect the results of strategic decisions.
Care should be taken when analyzing the macroenvironment, since the macroenvironment is by its very nature a very complex phenomenon. The speed with which changes take place in it is constantly increasing, and the changes are turbulent and often unpredictable. Therefore, when analyzing the macroenvironment, we recommend:
Take into account the limitations and imprecision of the analysis;
Conduct analysis on a regular basis;
Constantly update sources of information and improve the analysis technique;
Use information in conjunction with other data.
To analyze the microenvironment, Porter's five-factor model or resource model is most often used.
It should be borne in mind that the resource model is more complex than Porter's model, but it allows you to get a more complete picture of the analysis, understand the nature of competition within the industry and markets, assess the threat posed by competitors operating in other industries, assess your potential for new industries and markets.
The disadvantages of the Porter model include the following:
Internal and external analysis in interaction is not considered;
Companies are assumed to be competitive and not cooperative;
More attention is paid to markets for goods and services than to those markets from which the firm acquires resources;
It is not recognized that companies, as a result of their activities by strengthening their competencies and creating new ones, can change their own competitive environment;
It does not take into account the fact that firms operating outside the industry and market of the organization in question can pose a significant competitive threat if they have similar core competencies and distinctive features;
It is not taken into account that the strengthening of existing and the creation of new competencies can allow the company to become competitive outside its existing markets;
The implication is that the five factors affect all competitors in the industry equally. In reality, the strength of the factors is different for different firms. The model assumes that if, for example, the capabilities of suppliers are large, then this situation will be true for all firms in the industry. In fact, vendor capabilities vary from company to industry. Large firms will be exposed to less risk from suppliers than small ones. Firms with well-known trade marks will be less prone to influences from buyers and substitutes than firms with less well-known brands;
Goods and resource markets are inadequately described. The purchasing power and power of suppliers is related to the markets in which firms sell
their goods and receive resources. However, the conditions for both types of markets are somewhat more complex than Porter's model implies.
We recommend carrying out internal analysis using the M. Porter value chain. The value chain is a unified system of basic and auxiliary activities of an organization that seeks to increase the consumer value of the goods and at the same time to reduce its own costs due to the better organization of all processes and internal activities in the enterprise. In addition, the value chain also focuses on the processes taking place outside the firm, that is, each firm is considered in the context of the overall chain of activities that create value (value).
1. Analysis of production and economic activities.
2. Analysis of the property complex of the enterprise
3. Financial analysis of the enterprise.
Additionally, when analyzing the internal environment of an enterprise, the following methods can be used:
Situational analysis;
Desk research (work with accounting documents, statistical and other in-house information);
Observations and surveys of employees of the enterprise using special methods (diagnostic interview);
Teamwork methods (brainstorming, conferences, etc.);
Expert assessments;
Mathematical methods (trend analysis, factor analysis, calculation of average indicators, calculation of special coefficients).
One of the main methods used to study the environment and recommended for strategic analysis is SWOT analysis. The informational value of the SWOT analysis results depends, first of all, on the ability of analysts to give correct assessments to the evaluated criteria and on the creativity of the planning team.
For rate competitive positions we recommend making maps strategic groups... A strategic competitor group is a set of competing firms in a particular industry that share common features. Such traits can be similar strata-gia of competition, the same position in the market, similar products, distribution channels, service and other elements of marketing.
To summarize the results of work on the analysis of strategic factors of the macro- and microenvironment, it is recommended to use a special form "Summary of the analysis of external strategic factors" (External Strategic Factors Analysis Summary - EFAS). This form allows not so much to reveal threats and opportunities, but to evaluate them from the point of view of their importance for the organization of accounting for each of the identified threats and opportunities in the strategy of its behavior.
Thus, as a result of solving the problem, there is an identification of those areas of the business and its external environment that are critically important for the implementation of the goals and objectives of the organization. Further, on the basis of the information received, the key success factors and core competencies of the enterprise are identified, since in accordance with them, the choice of strategy takes place in the future.
All of the above allows you to get a fairly clear idea of the strengths and weaknesses ah of the enterprise, about the possibilities and threats of the external environment. But in addition to this, in order to obtain a complete picture of the analysis of the enterprise's activities, as well as for the further development of the strategy, it is necessary to determine not only the identified "symptoms", but also their sources and specific causes. To do this, we recommend using the "Ishikawa" diagram in combination with "why-analysis" and "how-analysis".
For effective use this instrument we propose to create a working group, which will include both managers involved in the development of the strategy and specialists in strategic management accounting for the mutual exchange of information during the "brainstorming". Working with a diagram resembling a fish skeleton boils down to the following: the problem to be solved is written on the right, and at the ends of the branches -
specific implications faced by the organization. To the left, the main groups of reasons are distinguished, and even further - the reasons themselves that cause the problems under study (Fig. 1). To identify the causes leading to the appearance of the effect, we use the "why - analysis" technique. Its essence lies in the fact that at each stage it is necessary to pose the question "why?" to each factor until the relationship of the causes is clarified. Similarly to "why-analysis", "how-analysis" is carried out to obtain a reasonable answer to the question of achieving the planned state, which can become a specific recommendation for action. Then, among all the problems, the main ones are singled out, the solution of which can form the basis of the strategy being developed.
When using the proposed tool, it is impossible to formulate what information is needed in this case, because in each specific case there will be different problems, the reasons that caused them and, accordingly, different recommendations. However, in our opinion, the information obtained during the strategic analysis of the environment of the enterprise will be sufficient to use the complex of these tools.
Further, we propose to modify the classical Porter's model to the model of seven forces of competition (Fig. 2), modified to describe the maximum parameters acting on the firm in a long period to reflect the ratio of supply and demand.
The elements of the circuit are:
1. Struggle with direct competitors (or the central ring of competition), the nature of which is determined by the intensity, specific forms of competition and the degree of interdependence of rivals.
2. Demand parameters. Demand is characterized by buyers with a set of benefits and needs. A firm achieves a competitive advantage in demand if it can serve the largest share of the absolute market potential.
3. Factors of production - labor resources (quantity, qualifications and cost of labor), physical resources (quantity, quality, availability and cost land plots, forest resources, etc.), climatic resources, geographic location, monetary resources, knowledge resource (the sum of scientific, technical and market information), infrastructure (type, quality of existing infrastructure and fees for using it).
4. Technologies and means of production. Technological change is the most dynamic of the seven forces of competition, since a more advanced technology over time replaces the technology that dominates at the moment, and this is the basis for asserting the existence of a product life cycle and competitive advantage due to the emergence, growth, gradual saturation of the derived demand and its decline due to changes in technology.
Corollary Corollary
Rice. 1. Ishikawa diagram
The threat of lack of consumers
Threat of adverse influence
Influence groups
Technology and means of production
The threat of the emergence of new technologies
Competitors in the economic zone
Rivalry between direct competitors
The threat of the appearance of substitute products;
threat of lack of complementary goods
Related and supportive ZX
Rice. 2. Model of the seven forces of competition
5. Potential competitors and their strategies. It is a threat that a firm must seek to mitigate and against which it must defend itself by creating barriers to entry.
6. Groups of influence (IO) - contact audiences that can put pressure on the organization both in the direction of expanding its activities and changing it, and even force it to abandon it.
7. Kindred and supportive economic zones (SZs) are areas in which firms can interact with each other in the process of forming a value chain, as well as areas dealing with complementary products.
8. Random events are processes that the firm's management cannot predict and manage. These are natural changes, circumstances of "force majeure",
the role of the human factor, unpredictable changes in supply and demand, etc.
Such a scheme is, in our opinion, the most acceptable, since it takes into account all the factors acting both in the short-term and long term, and does not contradict generally accepted provisions on competition. V short term it boils down to competition in the field of supply between direct competitors, since the role of supporting and related industries is reduced to the threat of the influence of goods and brands of substitutes; the role of production factors is reduced to the threat of losing suppliers or increasing prices for supplied resources; the influence of the organization on demand is reduced only to the pricing policy, technology and means of production, the role of the government and the GW remain constant; fight against potential competitors
tami is reduced only to the establishment of entry barriers to the SZH. Thus, the competitive model is reduced to Porter's simple industry competition. If we consider competition between countries, then we come to the macroeconomic level, at which the role of government is only influencing, not decisive, since competition between countries depends, first of all, on their economic development... The role of technology and means of production can be attributed to random factors, since they are created not by the country, but by the actors acting within it. Aggregated macroeconomic variables are considered as characteristics of the remaining determinants (demand, factors of production, related and supporting industries, competitors and their strategies). Considering the scheme of the seven forces of competition for an enterprise, the researcher understands the main difficulty of constructing theories of competition, especially in the long run - the close relationship and interdependence of all components. The scheme of seven forces is a system whose components are in numerous connections, partly deterministic and partly stochastic.
The choice of a strategy is a rather difficult decision, on which the further work of the entire enterprise largely depends. Therefore, as a result of strategic analysis, we should receive information that is visual, objective, timely and that allows us not only to choose a strategic alternative, but also to be able to correct it in the future. We propose to use not only separately existing tools, models and methods, but also their aggregates. So, we recommend for use a set of tools, which we will call the "matrix kit".
The algorithm for using the "matrix set" is shown in Fig. 3.
Based on the information obtained in the course of the strategic analysis of the company's activities, we draw up the traditional BCG matrix. This requires data on market growth rates (GRTav), as well as the relative market share (ODR) of each strategic zone household
vovaniya (SZH). For convenience, we depict each SZH in the form of a circle, the diameter of which will be proportional, for example, to the revenue. You will get a scatter chart that will allow you to get a fairly complete picture of the position of the company.
At the second step, we build a modified BCG matrix, which allows, on the one hand, to preserve the main advantages of the traditional model, including simplicity of visual perception and familiar terminology, and on the other hand, to use quantitative information in its construction, which is absolutely always available, accurate, reliable and minimal. by cost, that is, internal information of the enterprise.
As a characteristic of each product group (horizontal axis of the modified matrix), the parameter K is proposed - " specific gravity SZH in the total sales of the enterprise "during the base period (the most typical period is 1 year).
As the second characteristic of the product group (vertical axis of the matrix), the parameter T is proposed - "the share of SZH in the rate of change in the company's sales volumes" during the base period along a linear or any other trend.
The next step is to identify trends in relative market share. This is necessary in order to assess, for the considered SZH, in which direction they "move" along the BCG matrix for a more accurate choice of strategy. We propose to split this step into two parts and build two matrices that focus on various factors. Thus, the Growth / Growth matrix focuses on the market and demand, while the value map pays more attention to the analysis of buyers and competitors. In addition, the "Growth / Growth" matrix allows you to identify the trend of change in the ODR at the present time, and the value map - in the future.
The Growth / Growth matrix compares the growth trends that are observed in the market as a whole, with the dynamics of the company's growth, the growth of production of a certain product of the company or a certain SZH.
DATABASE OF STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
I. Traditional matrix GUS
II. Modified matrix VCO
SNF, -> 7)
[k, ™) (kG]
III.I. Matria "Growth / Growth
1dr - DRshch / No.) if
III, II. Value card
VI Complex matrix BCv
Goals, objectives
Choosing a strategic alternative
SZH y * 3 * snouts ODR
V. Reflection of cesium, tasks
Tekenini forecast
SZH SNF ODR
IV. Forecast ttdenii ......
Rice. 3. Algorithm for using the matrix set
To construct the matrix, information is needed on the market growth rates, on the revenue growth rates (parameter K is calculated, as when constructing a modified BCG matrix), the size of the SZH area (which was also calculated when constructing BCG matrices). As a result, a picture is obtained, analyzing which one can draw the following conclusions:
If the business has grown at a faster rate than the market in recent years, it will be a circle to the bottom right of the diagonal line;
If the business is growing at the same rate as the market, then the center of the circle will be on the diagonal;
If the business grew more slowly than the market as a whole, then the circles will be located to the left above the diagonal.
where 1dr g is the index of changes in market share,
taking into account market influence; GRTg - market growth rate at the z-th SZH.
If the index value is more than 1, SZH increases the market share, if the indicator is less than 1, SZH loses market share, if the index is 1, SZH retains the market share.
As already mentioned, in order to predict the trend of changes in the ODR in the future, we have developed a method that should help determine whether it is worth increasing market share using an aggressive strategy, or whether it is worth stopping at the achieved market share of a given product and expanding only through the manufacture of modified products. In other words, is our market share “well deserved” or is our share much less?
First, a value map is built to determine the "fair" market share based on data on the competitive advantage of each z-th SZH at a price (^ CP), data on the competitive advantage of each z-th SZH
by quality). The latter may be
found based on the values of the customer satisfaction index (1y k). However, unlike a similar indicator used at the stage of strategic analysis, the index should be interpreted, firstly, for each z-th SZH, and not for the enterprise as a whole, and secondly, the emphasis in the choice of assessment factors should be made on quality ...
It is the criteria of price and quality that were chosen to build the matrix, since they are the main ones when buying a product. Therefore, to determine a fair market share, we must look to the opinion of buyers so that the assessment is objective and reflects everything that affects the purchase of this product.
The value map is built for each SZH separately. All major competitors must be considered. Indicators of price (Ots) and quality (OK) of all competing enterprises are assessed on a ten-point scale. Further, the SZH of all firms are plotted on the grid of the graph (Fig. 4). The diagonal line in the figure is the line of correspondence between price and quality.
The niche that we choose will be limited by the consumer's income; on the graph, this corresponds to the estimate of the price of the product. The buyer we are considering will not buy a definitely cheap, inferior or overpriced item. Therefore, all products that fall outside the niche are not considered competitors, since our consumer will not buy them anyway. In the picture, this is item B and 0.
In addition, the niche could be limited by the technology line, since the basis of quality is determined by the manufacturing technology, and it is practically the same for similar products of our firms. Firms with very high technology sell products at a high price, which does not correspond to the income of our consumers.
But in this model there is a condition that products with very high quality can be cheap, and therefore there are no restrictions on quality, and all competitors strive for maximum customer satisfaction and minimum prices. They tend to hit some ideal area in the upper left corner.
Quality (Ok)
Yainim tknmvgsh 1
1 2 3 4 5 6/10 9 c 7 6 5 4
Rice. 4. Value map
All products falling on one line running parallel to the diagonal are equally competitive.
In order to determine the "fair" market share, let's number the abscissa axis in reverse order from 10 to 1:
Osh = 11 - Ots,
ДРspr IК = ДГг
DR £ DRReal
where Ots, is the modified estimate of the price of the product
SZH of the 1st enterprise;
Ots; - assessment of the price of the product of SZH, the th enterprise.
The position of each point (P,) is determined as the sum along the abscissa and ordinate axes:
P = Ok, + ots, = Ok, + (11 - Ots,), (3)
where P is the position of the SZH, the th enterprise; Ok, - an assessment of the quality of the product of SZH, the th enterprise.
Let's define the “fair” market share of each SZH according to the formula
where DR ^ pr is the "fair" share of the SZH market, the th enterprise.
where 1dRg is the index of changes in market share, taking into account the influence of customers and competitors; DR ™ p - "fair" market share £ th
SZH of the enterprise; DRreal - real share
the market of the z-th SZH enterprise.
If the index value is greater than 1, the company will be successful by increasing its market share. And vice versa, if the indicator is less than 1, then without purposeful actions the market share of this SZH will tend to decrease.
The next step is to forecast the trends in the development of events. In other words, on the basis of the identified trends and analysis of the situation, it is necessary to assess how the existing situation of SZH will change without the targeted efforts of the enterprise. The forecast of changes in market growth rates (OKTau) has already been obtained in the course of strategic analysis
Analytical model for strategic analysis
Strategic analysis stage Information presentation forms Tools used
Collection, accounting and analysis of information about the macroenvironment Graphs, tables 8ТЕР-analysis
Collection, accounting and analysis of information about the microenvironment Graphs, tables Resource model, model of five forces of competition, improved model of seven forces of competition, "matrix set"
Collection, accounting and analysis of information about the internal environment Graphs, tables Value chain, situational analysis, desk research, etc.
Generalization and integrated presentation of analysis information Enterprise environment profile, modified profile, map of strategic groups, EBAZ form, matrix of opportunities and threats SWOT analysis, benchmarking, drawing up a map of strategic groups
Identifying the causes of the events identified in the previous step Ishikawa diagram Drawing the Ishikawa diagram
activities of the enterprise. The tendency of changes in the share of the SZH market today (1DRg) and in the future (IKRg) was also determined. Further based on the forecast
we graphically depict the "displacement" of the SZH on the BSO matrix.
Information about goals, quantitatively expressed in tasks, usually obtained at the stage of goal-setting, is reflected on the SSR matrix for a visual representation of “what we want to achieve” for each SZH.
Combining all of the above in one comprehensive SSR matrix, we provide the obtained data to managers for preliminary selection of strategic alternatives for each SZH.
Using the proposed set of methods of strategic analysis will allow you to select preliminary options for strategies.
In conclusion, summarizing all of the above, we propose an analytical model of strategic analysis in tabular form, which includes a set of possible forms of information presentation and a set of tools that regulate at which stages of strategic analysis which existing or improved models are recommended to be used.
So, we have considered and proposed for use in the strategic analysis system various methods and models, both existing and improved and developed by us, that meet the requirements of modern conditions of enterprise activity, aimed at solving specific strategic management problems, ensuring the possibility of adapting an enterprise to changes in external conditions. and the internal environment.
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ABUSHOVA Ekaterina Evgenievna - Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Management in Mechanical Engineering, St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor.
195251, st. Polytechnic, 29, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: [email protected]
ABUSHOVA Ekaterina E. - St. Petersburg State Polytechnical University.
195251. Politechnicheskaya str. 29. St. Petersburg. Russia. Email: [email protected]
SULOEVA Svetlana Borisovna - Professor of the Department of Economics and Management in Mechanical Engineering, St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University, Doctor of Economics, Professor.
195251, st. Polytechnic, 29, St. Petersburg, Russia. Email: [email protected]
SULOEVA Svetlana B. - St. Petersburg State Polytechnical University.
195251. Politechnicheskaya str. 29. St. Petersburg. Russia. Email: [email protected]
© Saint Petersburg State Polytechnic University, 2014
Strategic analysis can be carried out both in relation to the organization itself and in relation to other enterprises. Their actions can be analyzed for benefits and harms, their capabilities can be assessed for completeness and emptiness, their plans can be studied in terms of strategy and tactics.
Based on this vision, we can more adequately build our strategy. Thus, strategic analysis is not only the decomposition of a phenomenon into separate components, but also their understanding, comprehension from a certain angle.
Let us consider and analyze the main approaches and directions of strategic analysis in the context of changes and transformations of economic processes.
One of the popular strategic analysis methods is the Boston Consulting Group's Growth-Share Matrix, designed to help diversified multi-product, multi-market and multinational business managers diagnose corporate strategy by providing an analytical basis for calculating the optimal product or business portfolio. Many other management tools cannot combine the depth and breadth of information in the way that the growth-market share matrix does in one condensed document. This simplicity allows the portfolio matrix to be used quickly and easily to identify areas for further in-depth analysis.
Rice. 1.1
Despite the fact that the matrix "growth - share in the market turnover" is a conceptual tool that allows you to easily and quickly identify areas for further comparative analysis, its main drawback is that the relative market share does not allow correctly assessing the competitive position of an enterprise ( that is, there is no clear and definite relationship between market share and the level of income of the enterprise or has grown in general).
The second strategic analysis method, the General Electric Business Screen Matrix (Figure 1.4), is a descriptive method using an appraisal and regulatory strategy.
It consists of a matrix that combines an internal analysis of the strengths of an organization with an analysis of the external environment in the industry to describe the competitive situation of various strategic organizational units and to guide the allocation of resources between strategic organizational units.
The business screen model offers more flexibility than the growth-market-share matrix. This happens for two reasons: firstly, different variables can be included in determining the stability of the business and the attractiveness of the industry, allowing more detailed analysis and secondly, different weights can be assigned to the selected variables, making the business screen more appropriate for each unique situation of each strategic organizational unit. The disadvantages of this method is the exhaustion of the considered variables selected to determine the stability of the business and the attractiveness of the industry. Moreover, the choice of significance for each variable is subject to bias and error. The use of return on invested capital as the only benchmark does not fully reflect the performance of an enterprise competing in the market with other economic agents.
The industry analysis method (the "five forces" model) has become widespread, which offers a structured analysis and overview of a particular industry (Figure 1.2)
Rice. 1.2
The purpose of this method is to identify the development potential of the industry. Competitive forces analysis is used to identify the main sources of competitive forces and the corresponding strength of these influences. The use of the “five forces” model will greatly improve the analysis of the environmental component in strategy formulation and its practical application. The main weakness of the Five Forces model is the assumption that the economic structure of industries is driven by competition. Moreover, this framework is being developed to analyze the strategies of only individual organizational units, since it does not take into account the synergies and interdependencies of the overall corporate level portfolio.
The most popular strategic analysis method is SWOT analysis or TOWS analysis, which is an acronym for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. SWOT analysis is an analogue of a more detailed situational analysis, it is used to assess the possible comparison of an organizational strategy, its internal capabilities (namely, strengths and weaknesses) and external conditions (that is, its capabilities and threats).
One of the most important advantages of SWOT analysis is its wide applicability. It can be applied to the analysis of a variety of staff units, including individual managers or specialists responsible for making decisions, work groups, projects, goods / services, functional areas of the organization (for example, accounting, marketing, manufacturing and sales), production units, corporations, conglomerates and commodity markets. SWOT analysis does not require special financial or computer resources; it can be carried out both quickly and with high efficiency without the need to collect a lot of data. The SWOT model is definitely a descriptive model that does not provide analytics with clear and well-articulated policy recommendations. A SWOT analysis will not provide a decision maker with concrete answers. Instead, a method is a way of organizing information and identifies the probabilities of potential events - both positive and negative - as the basis for developing business strategy and operational plans. Usually, as a result of the analysis, only too general, clearly manifested recommendations are offered: to protect the company from threats, to match the strengths of the company with its capabilities, or to protect the company from weaknesses using methods and methods of protecting property, stimulating the creative activity of the company's personnel, developing innovative activities ...
Thus, we believe that in the theory and practice of strategic planning there is no clear classification of methods of strategic analysis and there is no most optimal one. Moreover, the attribution of this or that method to strategic analysis or to strategic choice is most often very conditional, since the methods (models) themselves are quite universal. In strategic analysis, as noted above, the main focus is on qualitative, substantive aspects.
It is a tool for transforming the database from the analysis of the environment into the strategic plan of the organization. Strategic analysis tools include formal models, quantitative methods, and organization-specific analysis.
Strategic analysis can be divided into two main stages:
1.comparison of the benchmarks outlined by the firm and the real opportunities offered by the environment, analysis of the gap between them;
2. analysis of possible options for the future of the company, identification of strategic alternatives.
When strategic alternatives are identified, the firm moves to the final stage of strategy development - the choice of a specific strategy option and preparation strategic plan.
Gap analysis
Gap analysis is simple but effective method and analysis. Its purpose is to determine if there is a gap between the goals of the firm and its capabilities and, if so, to establish how to "fill" it.
Gap analysis algorithm:
Determination of the main interest of the firm, expressed in terms of strategic planning (for example, in increasing the number of sales);
Finding out the real capabilities of the company in terms of the current state of the environment and the expected future state (in 3, 5 years);
Determination of specific indicators of the strategic plan, corresponding to the main interest of the firm;
Establishing the difference between the indicators of the strategic plan and the opportunities dictated by the real position of the company;
Development of special programs and methods of action necessary to fill the gap.
Another way to apply gap analysis is to measure the difference between the highest expectations and the lowest forecasts. For example, if senior management expects a real ROI of 20%, but analysis suggests 15% would be the most realistic, discussion and action is required to fill the 5% gap.
Filling can be done in several ways, for example:
By increasing productivity and achieving the desired 20%;
By abandoning more ambitious plans in favor of 15%;
The following methods of strategic analysis are commonly used to identify strategic alternatives, possible options for a strategic plan.
Cost Analysis and Experience Curve
One of the classic strategy models was developed in 1926. It links the definition of strategy to the achievement of cost advantage.
Reducing costs while increasing production is due to a combination of the following factors:
1. the advantages in technology arising from the expansion of production;
2. learning from experience in the most effective way of organizing production;
3. the effect of economies of scale.
According to the experience curve, the main direction of the firm's strategy should be the conquest of the largest market share, since it is the largest competitor that has the opportunity to achieve the lowest unit costs and, therefore, the highest profits.
The application of the experience curve is possible in the branches of material production.
In modern conditions, achieving cost leadership is not necessarily associated with an increase in the scale of production. The current high-tech equipment is designed not only for large-scale production, but also for small ones. Today, even a small firm can use computers, modular equipment, which provide high performance and adaptability to solve various specific tasks. The main disadvantage of the model is the consideration of only one of the internal problems of the organization and inattention to the external environment (primarily to the needs of customers).
Market dynamics analysis, life cycle model
The analysis of the dynamics of the market for a given product is based on the well-known model of the life cycle of a product, which is an analogy to the life cycle of a biological being.
The life of a product on the market is divided into several main stages, each of which corresponds to its own level of sales and other marketing characteristics:
- birth and market penetration - small sales and growth-oriented strategy;
- growth stage - a significant increase in sales and a rapid growth strategy;
- maturity stage - sustainable sales and stability-oriented strategy;
- stage of market saturation and decline - sales decline and reduction strategy.
The purpose of the life cycle model is to correctly determine the business strategy for each stage of the life of a product in the market. There are a large number of life cycle modifications depending on the types of goods. However, you should not tie strategy too closely to the life cycle model.
The “experience curve” and “life cycle” models are the simplest methods of strategic analysis, since they associate strategy development with only one of the factors of the firm's performance. The methods described below are of a more complex nature; they follow the path of linking the various components of the internal and external environment of the organization.
Product-market model
Proposed by A.J. Steiner in 1975. It is a matrix that includes the classification of markets and the classification of products into existing, new, but related to existing, and completely new products.
Rice. 1. Matrix "market-product"
The matrix shows the levels of risk and, accordingly, the degree of probability of success for various combinations of "market-product". The model is used for:
1.determining the likelihood of successful activity when choosing a particular type of business;
2.choosing between different kinds business, including when determining the ratio of investments for different business units, that is, when forming a company's securities portfolio.
Strategy Analysis Portfolio Models
Portfolio models determine the present and future position of a business in terms of market attractiveness and the ability of the business to compete within it. The original, classic portfolio model is the BCG (Boston Consulting Group) matrix.
The matrix indicates four main business positions:
1. highly competitive business in fast growing markets - ideal star position;
2. a highly competitive business in mature, saturated, stagnant markets (profitable "cash cows" or "moneybags") - a good source of cash for the firm;
3. not having a good competitive position, but "question marks" operating in promising markets, whose future is uncertain;
About a combination of weak competitive positions with markets that are in a state of stagnation - "dogs" - outcasts of the business world.
The BCG model is used:
To determine interrelated conclusions about the position of the business unit (business) that is part of the organization and its strategic prospects;
Using the BCG matrix, the firm forms the composition of its portfolio (that is, it determines the combination of capital investments in various industries, various business units).
Within the framework of the BCG matrix, options for strategies can be proposed:
1. Growth and increase in market share - turning a "question mark" into a "star" (aggressive "question marks" are sometimes called "wild cats").
2. Maintaining market share is a strategy for cash cows whose revenues are important to growing businesses and financial innovation.
3. "Harvesting", that is, getting a short-term share of profits to the maximum extent possible, even at the expense of reducing market share - a strategy for weak "cows" deprived of the future, unlucky "question marks" and "dogs".
4. Liquidating or abandoning a business and using the resulting funds in other industries is a strategy for "dogs" and "question marks" who no longer have the opportunity to invest to improve their positions.
The BCG model has the following advantages and disadvantages:
Advantages:
The model is used to study the relationship between the business units that make up the organization, as well as their long-term goals;
The model can be the basis for analyzing different stages of development of a business unit (business);
Provides a simple, easy-to-understand approach to organizing an organization's business portfolio (portfolio of securities).
Flaws:
Does not always assess business opportunities correctly. For a unit identified as a "dog" may recommend leaving the market, while external and internal changes can change the position of the business. Thus, a small-scale farm that supplies vegetable products in the 70s could be assessed as a "dog", but by the 90s, the deterioration of the ecological situation and a special attitude towards "clean" products created new prospects for this business;
Overly focused on cash flows, while investment performance is an equally important metric for an organization. Aims at super growth and ignores the possibilities of business recovery, the use of the best management methods.
A more sophisticated version of the portfolio model is the McKinsey multivariate matrix of the company that develops it for General Electric.
Assessment of a multidisciplinary portfolio model:
Its advantage over a simple portfolio model is that it takes into account the greatest number of significant factors of the internal and external environment of the firm;
In the application of this model, there are limitations, which include the absence of specific recommendations on behavior in a particular market, as well as the possibility of a subjective, distorted assessment by the firm of its position.
Source - I.A. PODELINSKAYA, M.V. BYANKIN STRATEGIC PLANNING Study guide. - Ulan-Ude: VSGTU Publishing House, 2005. - 55 p.
Part 1
Master's degree
direction "Management",
System Management program
direction "Economics"
program "Financial planning and control"
Lecturer - Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor Tamara Andreevna Shcherba
Kaliningrad
| P. | ||
| 1. | Strategic analysis concept. The role of the analytical unit in the strategic management system ………………………………… | |
| 2. | Analysis of macroenvironmental factors: PEST-analysis …………………………… | |
| 3. | Modern approach to the analysis of the industry structure and competition. The concept of sustainable competitive advantage …………… | |
| 4. | Analysis of the resources and competencies of the company. SNW Analysis ……………… .. | |
| 5. | Assessment of the strategic type of company: consumer matrix and producer matrix ………………………………………………… .. | |
| 6. | Matrix models of portfolio analysis of diversified companies …………………………………………………………………… .. | |
| 7. | Generalizing methods of situational analysis: SWOT analysis, GAP analysis, cost analysis ………………………………………………… | |
| 8. | The list of basic and additional educational literature ……………. | |
| 9. | Practical illustrations ……………………………………………… | |
| 10. | Glossary………………………………………………………………… |
Topic # _1__ “__ The concept of strategic analysis. The role of the analytical unit in the strategic management system "
Plan:
1. The place of strategic analysis in the strategic management system
2. Modern concept strategic analysis
3. Strategic analysis as the basis for the formation of the company's strategy
4. Sources of information for strategic analysis
Educational information on the topic
The strategic management process begins with strategic analysis. Strategic analysis serves as the basis for assessing the strategic position and the formation of strategic alternatives. The essence of strategic analysis is to identify trends, the nature and dynamics of the external environment, assess the state of the company, assess the state of the company, identify its strengths and weaknesses, and assess the degree of risk impact.
The structure of the basic strategic management model includes elements of three sections: strategic analysis h, strategic planning, strategy implementation and strategic control
Purpose of strategic management:
- ensuring that the entire company is focused on a key aspect of the strategy: "What are we trying to do and what are we achieving?" , thus defining the vector of development.
- the need for managers to respond more clearly to emerging changes, new opportunities and threatening trends.
- opportunity for managers to evaluate alternatives capital investments and staff expansion, i.e. smartly transfer resources to strategically sound and high-performing projects.
· The ability to combine the decisions of managers of all levels related to the strategy.
- creating an environment conducive to development and opposing trends that can only lead to a passive response to a change in the situation.
The study of different views on the company's strategy allowed us to single out the most preferable given by M. Porter:
“The essence of strategy is the ability to choose what should be abandoned. If there were no alternative, there would be no need for a strategy. A good idea will be quickly copied by competitors. Again, profit will depend on the operating efficiency of the company. The choice of strategy comes down to the choice of points of growth and competitive advantage».
The purpose of strategic analysis is objective assessment strategic alternatives and the choice of "growth points" based on an analysis of the external and internal environment.
Purpose of strategic analysis- to form a reliable opinion about:
¾ what is the company as an economic entity, how it functions and is managed, what are the results of its activities and how they are formed, what are the strengths and weaknesses at the moment;
¾ what external factors affect the development of the company as a system, what
the mechanism of their influence, how these factors are manifested and measured, what are the tendencies of their change in the future.
Conceptually, the strategic analysis process is presented in Figure 1.
Figure 1 - Strategic Analysis Process
The starting point is the formulation of strategic initiatives. Strategic Initiatives- these are the intentions of the owners and senior management regarding the key idea and business model, vision and mission, strategic goals and objectives. In terms of strategic alternatives, owners and managers express their intentions, wishes and requirements for the future state of the company. Strategic initiatives are characterized by:
¾ ambitious ideas;
¾ the scope of the company's activities and structure;
¾ predetermining influence on performance results.
Examples of strategic initiatives include:
¾ changing the key idea of the business;
¾ improving the business model;
¾ mergers or acquisitions, sale of a part of a business;
¾ attracting strategic partners, etc.
The main stages of strategic analysis:
- Analysis of the internal environment Is a process of assessing the company's activities for a certain period of time in functional areas, the purpose of which is to form a reliable opinion about what the company is, how it functions and is managed, what opportunities and problems it has at the moment.
- Analysis of the external environment Is the process of determining the state and key factors, identifying trends in their change and assessing the degree of influence on the company's activities, the purpose of which is to identify opportunities and threats from the outside based on an assessment of the competitive and macro environment.
- Analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats– SWOT analysis, the results of which make it possible to form a field of strategic alternatives and evaluate each of them from the standpoint of strengthening the company's competitiveness.
- Risk analysis, which is necessary to understand the degree of exposure of the company to the influence of uncertain external factors. The essence of this stage of the analysis consists in identifying risks, determining the factors that cause them, and identifying the likely consequences of their occurrence.
The results of strategic analysis make it possible to form a reliable and complete picture of what is happening inside and outside the company, about its competitive advantages and disadvantages, about the opportunities and threats of development, the degree of riskiness of strategic alternatives. Each alternative ultimately receives a characteristic in the following aspects:
¾ development directions: portfolio of strategic business units, product line target customer groups;
¾ essence of development: business model, concentration or diversification of business, competitive advantages, development priorities;
¾ strengths and weaknesses of the company, opportunities and threats of development;
¾ sources of development: growth of equity and debt capital, mergers and acquisitions, strategic alliances, restructuring;
¾ assessment of risks and the degree of their influence on the development of the company;
¾ compliance of the strategic alternative with the strategic initiatives and expectations of owners and managers.
Based on the results of the analysis, decisions can be made on the choice of strategic alternatives, which is the basis for goal-setting.
Table 1 presents a matrix for combining strategic analysis techniques with the stages of developing a company's strategy.
Table 1 - The use of strategic analysis techniques in the process of developing a strategy
| Strategic analysis techniques | Stages of strategy development | ||||
| Vision and mission development | Development of strategic goals | Choosing a strategy | Strategy implementation | Strategy evaluation | |
| PEST analysis | + | + | + | ||
| SWOT analysis | + | + | + | ||
| Industry analysis and competitive analysis | + | + | + | + | + |
| Positional Analysis | + | + | + | + | + |
| Resource Analysis (SNW Analysis) | + | + | + | + | |
| Strategic value analysis | + | + | + | ||
| Control system diagnostics | + | + | + | + | |
| Diagnostics org. culture | + | + | + | + | + |
Effective implementation of a strategic analysis of the external and internal environment of the company is impossible without a well-functioning information support systems... In general, information sources are divided into external and internal. To external sources include legislative and regulations, statistics, periodicals, economic literature, independent expert assessment, market information, etc. TO internal sources includes data from accounting and management accounting and reporting, constituent documents, technical documentation, audit reports, etc.
A comparative assessment of information sources for strategic analysis is shown in Table 2.
Table 2 - Sources of information for strategic analysis
| Sources of information | Characteristic |
| 1. Officially disclosed information (annual reports, etc.). | This is one of the most reliable and complete sources. The downside is that only open information is officially disclosed. joint stock companies, and for the analysis of small companies you will have to look for other ways. |
| 2.Official statistics | Government statistics may not include data on some important market players. Therefore, statistics are useful not so much by themselves, but in conjunction with general market trends and information obtained in other ways. |
| 3. Internal press of the enterprise | Large companies very often place on their website issues of the corporate newspaper prepared by the employees of the enterprise. They raise the most pressing problems. Usually they are identified with great difficulty during interviews with leading specialists of the company, but here they are presented ready-made. |
| 4. Press publications (analytics, news). | The value of this source is very often underestimated, although sometimes it allows you to find completely closed information. In addition, this source of information is very good for preliminary acquaintance with the situation in the industry and allows you to understand the main specifics of the business, its main problems and trends. |
| 5. Competitors | They are interesting, first of all, for their assessments of the market, how they position their products, what methods I use to promote and stimulate sales. Sometimes it turns out to be impossible to get information from them in a direct way, and then various options can be used. Most affordable way- to act on behalf of the buyer. Indirect sources of information can be advertising campaigns competitors, information of service, transport companies serving them, etc. |
| 6. Market experts | In addition to competing companies, there is a huge variety of industry experts: research institutes, various associations, large clients. Their main feature and advantage is that they see the situation in the industry as a whole, they can clearly grasp the general features and trends. |
| 7. Exhibitions | Allows you to quickly establish contact and collect data on the main players in the industry. They are good because all the companies of interest are in front of your eyes on one site at once. Moreover, they, as a rule, are in the mood for communication, ready to share information. |
| 8. Industry associations, information. portals | As a rule, they contain information of a sufficiently high quality, prepared by specialists who are well aware of the specifics of their industry. It is a good and reliable source of information. |
| 9. Purchased analytics | Various studies are now very widely represented on the market. Their use is a good alternative to conducting market analysis on your own, but there are a number of significant limitations. When purchasing a study, you need to be sure that it contains the necessary information. Another problem can be the quality of the information available in the report. Try to clarify how you can get the answers to these questions before you buy the study. " |
Of particular importance among the sources of external information are the results of research and forecasts of independent experts specializing in a particular industry.
Questions for self-control
- Determine the place of strategic analysis in common system strategic management.
- What are strategic initiatives?
- What stages of strategic analysis can be distinguished?
- What are the main methods of strategic analysis. How are they linked to the stages of strategy development?
- What sources of information do you know for conducting strategic analysis? Describe them.
Department of Public Administration
and national security
Modern
strategic analysis
Surma I.V.
Associate Professor, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Member of the Expert Council
Financial Market Committee of the State Duma of the Russian Federation
Moscow
2013Strategic planning:
milestones and tools
"Knowledge of some
principles easily compensates
ignorance of some facts ”.
Claude Helvetius Main stages:
1. Determining the global purpose of the organization
(missions);
2. Determining the goals of the organization;
3. Assessment and analysis of the external environment of the organization;
4. Identifying strengths and weaknesses
organizations;
5. Analysis of strategic alternatives;
6. Choice of strategy;
7. Implementation of the strategy;
8. Assessment of implementation results
strategy. Stage number 1. Definition of the global
goals of the organization (mission)
The mission of an organization (institution) is a statement
philosophy, determining the meaning of its existence, needs,
which it seeks to satisfy, the choice of a niche and market segment,
identification of consumers, ways to satisfy them
needs, that is, a formulated global goal,
explaining why and for what reason it was created and functions
the given organization (institution).
A correctly formulated mission should
to be a source of collective unity,
guideline for leadership, serve for
selection of benchmark goals and strategic
alternatives, align goals
into a single goal tree.
Goal tree decomposition method (option no. 1)
Goal level
Characteristic
Goal level "0"
Global goal
organization
Goal level "1"
The purpose of the main subsystems and
control system
Goal level "2"
Objectives defined
the purpose of each
subsystems
Goal level "3"
Targets initiated
line of business
Goal level "4"
Implementation activities
goals
Example Stage number 2. Determining the goals of the organization
Goal tree decomposition method (option number 2)
Organization (institution) mission
Goals initiated by the environment of the organization (institution)
Macroenvironment
Microenvironment
Internal environment
Areas of activity of the management of the organization (institution)
Most relevant
macroenvironmental factors
Most relevant
microenvironmental factors
Most relevant
environmental factors
Activities planned by the management of the organization (institution)
Towards
Towards
Towards
macroenvironment
microenvironments
internal environment
Tasks implemented by the management of the organization (institution)
For each event
For each event
For each event
PEST analysis of the macroenvironment
PEST analysis - based on the first letters of English words: Political - political and legal aspect; Economical -
economic aspect; Sociocultural - sociocultural; Technological - the technological aspect.
Positive aspects
Negative aspects
Political and legal factors: political stability, educational legislation,
activity of trade unions, etc.
Economic factors: tax policy, inflation rate, level wages v
education, remuneration system, etc.
Socio-cultural factors: demographic situation, population mobility, lifestyle.
Technological factors: innovative technologies, protection of intellectual property. Stage number 3. Assessment and analysis of the external environment of the organization
Opportunities and Threats Matrix
Probability
use of
opportunities
Influence on the strategy of the organization (institution)
Strong
Moderate
Small
High
"BC" field
Field "VU"
VM field
Average
"CC" field
"SU" field
"CM" field
Low
Field "NS"
Field "OU"
"NM" field Stage number 4. Identification of strong and
weaknesses of the organization
SWOT analysis
Internal environment
organization
(institutions).
Potential assessment
Forces ("S"):
1. _______________
2. _______________
Weaknesses ("W"):
1. _______________
2. _______________
External environment of the organization (institution)
Opportunities ("O"):
1. ______________
2. ______________
Threats ("T"):
1. ______________
2. ______________
1. Field "SO"
II. Field "ST"
IV. Field "WO"
III. Field "WT" SWOT is a method of analysis in strategic
planning to divide
factors and phenomena into four categories: Strengths
(Strengths), Weaknesses (Weaknesses),
Opportunities and Threats.
SWOT was first introduced in 1963 at Harvard at
conferences on business policy problems by professor
K. Andrews. The original SWOT analysis was based on
sounding and structuring knowledge about the current situation and
trends.
V
1965
year
four
professors
Harvard
University - Leraned, Christensen, Andrews, Guth
proposed a technology for using a SWOT model for
developing a strategy for the behavior of the firm. It was suggested
LCAG scheme (by the initial letters of the authors' surnames),
which
founded
on the
sequences
steps
leading to the choice of strategy.
Since SWOT analysis in general does not contain
economic categories, it can be applied to any
organizations, individuals and countries to build
strategies in a variety of areas of activity. SNW analysis is an analysis of the weak and
strengths of the organization, assessed
internal environment for three values:
Strength
Neutral (neutral side),
Weakness (weak side).
As practice has shown, in a situation
strategic analysis of the internal environment
organizations as a neutral position is better
just fix the average market condition for
this particular situation.
Usually SNW analysis is used for more
in-depth study of the internal environment of the company after
conducting a SWOT analysis. Example SNW Analysis
N
p / p
Qualitative assessment of the position
Strategic position
1.
Corporate
strategy
2.
Business strategies (or
business unit strategies) including
including:
Business 1
Business 2
3.
Organizational structure
4.
Finance as general
financial position,
including:
Finance as a fortune
current balance
Finance as a financial structure
Finance as investment
resources
S
N
W
Strong
Neutral
Weak
Strategic SWOT Analysis Matrix
FavorableMatrix of strategic
SWOT analysis
OPPORTUNITIES - Opportunities
Key Success Factors
(KFU)
Unfavorable
GRADE
STRENGTHS - Forces
Competitive advantages
(Key competencies)
Strategic
alternatives
THREATS - Threats
(Threats from the external environment)
WEAKNESSES - Weaknesses
(Disadvantages of the firm) STRENGTHS - competitive advantages
Reliability of the company
Low cost of services
Highly professional management system
Experience in attracting and retaining customers
Concentration on specific products and services
Personalized customer service
Access to financial resources (preferably "long")
Advanced information technology
Professional staff
Dynamic response to market changes
High quality of service
Effective communication with local authorities
Brand awareness
Convenient location WEAKNESSES - weaknesses
Doesn't have a professional system
management
Not driven by customer needs
Doesn't track competitors
Doesn't understand what clients are target for him
Doesn't innovate business
Doesn't conduct marketing research
Doesn't highlight or improve business processes
Not making enough development efforts
brand
Doesn't use new technologies
Doesn't train staff
Does not identify or predict risks, etc. OPPORTUNITIES - key success factors (KFU) favorable circumstances, use
which will create an advantage
Improving the investment climate in
country
Deterioration of the position of competitors
Reducing inflation
Strengthening of the ruble against
dollar
Underdeveloped species
service
A sharp increase in demand for certain types
products and services
Growth in the level of income of the population, etc. TREATS - Threats
(factors that can potentially worsen
position)
Lack of capital
Limited resource base
Market entry of new
competitors
Changing preferences
clients
Tax increases, etc.
SWOT analysis
To flesh outmatrix of strategic
SWOT analysis optional
build two more matrices:
Opportunity matrix
Threat matrix Opportunity matrix
Influence
Strong
The average
Weak
Probability
High
1
2
3
Average
4
5
6
Low
7
8
9Threat matrix
Impact Collapse
Heavy
condition
Middle
gravity
Lung
Probability
High
1
2
3
4
Average
5
6
7
8
Low
9
10
11
12
When conducting a SWOT analysis, various methods are used:
Situational analysis using,desk and field research
Development of analytical maps based on
expert assessments ("brainstorming" or
free association method, Delphi method,
synectics, etc.)
Assessment of strengths and weaknesses versus
main competitors.
Positioning by conducting focus groups, questionnaires, etc.
Formulation of strategic goals and strategic alternatives
Strategic alternatives and goalscompanies are determined after
formulating the Mission, Vision and
SWOT analysis.
Goals show what the company is striving for
and what she wants to achieve.
Company objectives are subject to careful
analysis and divided into long-term,
medium-term and short-term and usually
are presented as an ordered
goal tree.
SMART - Principle Goals must meet several prerequisites
They should be:specific
measurable
agreed (Agreeable or Accordant):
- with the Vision and Mission of the company,
- between themselves,
- with those who have to fulfill them;
achievable (Realistic)
defined in time (Time bound)
alternatives
Business screen G.N. Konstantinova
The attractiveness of this
strategy
High
Competitive position of this alternative
Strong
Average
Weak
"Star"
"Wild cat"
"Cash
cow"
"Dog"
Average
Low
"Zvezda" is a strategy that is most attractive and competitive;
"Wild cat" - the strategy is attractive, but no longer competitive;
"Cash cow" - the strategy is no longer attractive, but still competitive;
"Dog" is a strategy that should be abandoned as early as possible, since it
is no longer attractive and competitive. Stage 5. Analysis of strategic
alternatives
Abel's three-dimensional scheme
Who???
Market segments
What???
Specifications
needs
How???
Technologies Stage number 6. Choosing an organization strategy
Commission method
The commission method consists of open discussion on
the issue under discussion to develop a consensus
teams, groups, collectives. Collective opinion
determined as a result of open or secret
voting.
Positive side effect - growth
awareness of the team about the state of affairs of the organization
(institutions).
Side effects - manifestation
conformity, discussion is often only leading experts.
Implementation of the chosen strategy option can
carried out by various instruments, including
traditional:
development program,
annual activity plan,
system of tactical tasks,
implementation of management
procedures and rules,
development and implementation of regulations,
job descriptions,
network schedules of work performance,
methodological recommendations, etc. Stage 7. Implementation of the strategy
Key Stakeholder Map Matrix
The degree of influence on
project (support
of this person, group)
Vital
is necessary
Undoubtedly
desirable
Desirable
Attitude to the project
Enthusiast
Neutral
Opponent
Financial
director
Accountant
Parental
Committee
Optional
Different key stakeholders may have different understanding of the objectives of the project. Should
to agree on the understanding of the goals "before", "during" and "after" the implementation of the project.
strategy
Step number 1. - Isolation of the leading parameters that determine
the state of the institution. For each parameter, select
controlled indicator.
Alternatively, the main sections of the "Public Report
educational institution "with quantitative parameters.
For example, - "Number of students".
Step number 2. - Fixing actually achieved for each
controlled indicator of the result. This indicator is taken
for the original level.
"Number of students" - 450 people. Stage 8. Evaluation of implementation results
strategy
Achievement Quantification Matrix
strategic goals "-" CODE SC "
Step number 3. - Determination by expert opinion to the maximum
possible outcome for each indicator.
These values are assessed on a discrete scale (up to 10 points).
"Number of students" - initial level - 450 people.
Quantity
learners
(people)
400
420
440
460
480
500
Discrete
scores
1
2
3
4
6
10Stage 8. Evaluation of implementation results
strategy
Achievement Quantification Matrix
strategic goals "-" CODE SC "
Step # 4 - Determining the maximum possible (acceptable)
deterioration indicator for each parameter.
For example, - "Number of students" - not less than 400.
Step number 5. - Determination of the weight of each parameter in points.
1. "Number of students"
5 points
2. "Number of qualified permanent employees"
4 points
3. "Number of computers available"
1 point
4. "The number of high school students who successfully passed the exam"
2 points
5.etc. Stage 8. Evaluation of implementation results
strategy
Achievement Quantification Matrix
strategic goals "-" CODE SC "
Step number 6. - Determination of the index of monitored indicators
(for each parameter) = score (step No. 3) x score (step No. 5).
For example, 4 points (indicator of the number of students -
460 people) x 5 points (weight of the parameter "Number of students") =
20 points.
This index is the basis for comparison.
planned indicators for all main parameters
strategic plan for the development of an educational institution, in
including comparison with previously achieved results of its
activities in previous years. Instead of concluding the introductory part:
"Many small successes are not
are a guarantee of a great victory.
We need a system! "
V. Schwebel At the top of the figure is the aggregate consumption curve
traditional resources in the world, which is approaching the point,
corresponding to the 20-30s of the XXI century, to the limit line. Thereby
it is emphasized that the rapidly growing needs of people today,
involved and involved in the consumer society, too much
outstripping the capabilities of humanity and its resource base.
It is concluded that “the boundless growth of the global economy with
limited resource base is impossible. Modern economics
or should be radically rebuilt (and this is in any case
associated with large shocks and at least a temporary decline), or
reach the limits of their development and enter a period of crisis and decay
global economic ties ”.
The figure shows two possible options development of Western countries in
the framework of traditional principles. Moreover, as a "social liberal"
so the "neoconservative" variants of strategies turn out to be
unable to go beyond the limit of GDP growth. All the more so
the limit does not reach, according to the forecast, neither the new industrial
society ”, nor China. The actual and projected development of the countries of the world at the end of the second and
the beginning of the third millennium With regard to Russia, there are three possible
option:
1) the option of following in the wake of the strategies of the West,
which becomes for Russia "the end of history";
2) a variant of "great shocks" that can
take shape in the event of a new social revolution in
country;
3) a variant of the "alternative strategy" that appears in
case of consolidation Russian society around
innovative social programs formed
based on the true interests of the country. This (third) version of the strategy assumes a conscious orientation of the country
(its leadership, "elite" and the whole society) to an innovative type of development. Just on
On the basis of this strategy, the country will be able to enter fully armed into the expected new scientific and technological revolution. Although the contours of the new scientific and technological revolution remain largely vague,
only she - with interested and coordinated actions of all countries of the world -
can give humanity a chance to go beyond the currently defined limits
traditional economic growth.
Based on the theory of foresight, N.D. Kondratyev and the methodology of integral
macro-forecasting, the Global Forecast "The Future of Civilization" for the period
until 2050, developed by Russian and Kazakh scientists in 2007-2009,
published in 10 parts and presented at the round table meeting within the 64th
session of the UN General Assembly on October 27, 2009. The forecast evaluates the cluster
global crises (civilizational, energy-ecological, geopolitical and
sociodemographic) of the first quarter of the XXI century. National Foresight Projects
Country, name Customer (sponsors), Temporary
the project
year of implementation
horizon
Japan
Great Britain,
"Partnership for the sake of
progress "
USA,
Ministry
education, culture,
sports, science and
technologies, every five
years since 1971;
last -2005
Science Office and
technologies, 1995
Method
The main
results
30 years
Panels,
Delphi
Reports, checklists
recommendations for the development
thematic areas,
recommendations for scientific
politics
10-20 years
Panels,
Delphi
Recommendations for measures
scientific and technical
politicians
Critical
technologies
List of critical
Technology
Panels
List of critical
Technology
Method
critical
technologies,
RK polls
Lists of critical
Technology
Science Office and
technologies, 1995
5-10 years
Netherlands,
Ministry
economics, 1998
10 years
USA,
Science Office and
technologies, 1998
"National
critical
technologies"
"Technological
radar"
"New forces in
action "
Sweden,
"Swedish
technological
Foresight "
France,
"Critical
technologies, 2005 "
1999 g.,
2004 r.
2000 year
5-10 years
Reports by directions
10-20 years
Panels
5-10 years
Critical
technologies,
expert
groups, polls
List of key
technologies The country,
Project name
Customer (sponsors),
year of implementation
Germany,
"Futur"
Ministry
education and science, with
1999 year
Great Britain,
Science Office and
technologies, several
ministries
1999-2002
"Program
Foresight ",
2nd round
Science Office and
technologies, several
"Program
ministries, since 2002
Foresight ", 3rd round
Czech,
Ministry
"Suggestions for
education and science,
national
research
2002 year
Temporal
horizon
Method
The main
results
20 years
Panels, scripts
10-20 years
Panels, seminars,
open discussions,
internet platform
Strategic
development directions,
priorities for
research
programs
Great Britain,
10-20 years
10 years
Expert groups,
scripts,
scanning
technologies
Critical
technologies
programs"
Suggestions for
support
national
innovative
systems
Suggestions for
innovative
development
Suggestions for
national
research
programs
Korea
Ministry of Science and
technologies, 2003
25 years
Analysis
needs,
Delphi, scenarios,
benchmarking
Reports, scripts,
proposals for the 3rd scientific and technical plan
Russia
Ministry
education and science
RF, 2005
10 years
Critical
technologies,
expert groups,
expert polls
Scroll
priority
directions and
critical
technologies CREATIVITY
Foresight rhombus
EVIDENCE Today the Foresight methodology is actively used in
national, supranational, sectoral, regional and
corporate levels. At the same time, the main advantage
this methodology compared to traditional approaches
is the focus on the involvement of all interested
parties, which allows not only to fully take into account all
important aspects of the problems under consideration, but also to find the basis
to coordinate positions on finding mutually acceptable
ways to solve them.
Areas of Foresight application and the range of tasks solved with its
help are very diverse. A lot of experience has already been accumulated
implementation of projects at the national, sectoral,
regional and corporate levels. V last years all
more projects are implemented in cooperation of two or more
countries, special programs are formed within
international organizations are projects of the so-called
supranational level. At each of these levels, you can
find examples of projects covering a wide variety of topics
- from predominantly scientific and technological to industry-specific,
educational, social, environmental, etc. ■ Development of social programs (aging
population, health care, education):
Germany, Japan, Austria, Netherlands
2008 r.
■ Strategic programs for innovative
country development:
Japan, Ireland, Australia
■ Forecasts, scenarios, technological maps
development of economic sectors:
UK, Italy, Canada
■ strengthening the integration of science and education:
The EU
■ Development of national (international) scientific and technical programs:
Czech Republic, China, EU
■ Formation of lists of critical technologies:
USA, France, Netherlands
■ Positioning the country in the global scientific and technological space (benchmarking):
Japan, UK, Germany
1970 year Test questions and tasks
1. What are the functions of forecasting in the system of state regulation
socio-economic development? Show with specific examples how these
functions are carried out.
2. What are the main provisions of the theory of foresight of N.D. Kondratyev. To what extent
these provisions are taken into account in modern forecasting practice in Russia and for
abroad?
3. What is the essence of the integral macro-forecasting methodology? What are her
advantages over commonly used methods (extrapolation,
foresight, etc.)?
4. What types of cycles need to be considered in the long and medium term
forecasting socio-economic and innovative technological development?
5. What are the features, advantages and limitations of using the Foresight method in
forecasting?
6. Draw a diagram of the summarized indicators and balances of macro-forecasting and
show the relationship between them.
7. What caused the global energy-ecological, food, financial and economic crises at the beginning of the XXI century? Identify possible scenarios for overcoming these
crises. What is the role of Russia in the development and implementation of these scenarios? Is it possible to
anticipate a crisis?
