Systems analysis methods in strategic planning. Strategic planning methods in the enterprise

The scientific basis for strategic planning is the planning methodology. The strategic planning methodology is a tool for studying the potential for application in practical activities laws governing the development of the economy; development of techniques for solving strategic planning issues and methods of their practical implementation.

The strategic planning methodology considers:

1) methodological approaches;
2) methodology;
3) methods of strategic planning.

The methodological approach is an integral direction of application of logic, principles, and methods of strategic planning in the development of forecasts, strategic programs and plans of all levels and interests.

Strategic planning does not reject the use of common methodological approaches to planning, but introduces amendments defined by the strategic planning function, such as:

1) a systematic approach;
2) self-developing interactive planning scheme;
3) the concept of a self-learning adaptive planning system.

Reactivism is an orientation towards the past. When using reactive planning, the development of the plan is implemented on the basis of the results achieved in the previous period. The planning procedure will be carried out according to the “bottom-up” scheme, and the leadership and management of this process is carried out “from the top-down”.

The advantage of a reactive approach to planning is the consideration of previous experience, as well as the continuity of planning decisions. The disadvantages of reactive planning include:

1) mismatch between the structural elements of planning systems;
2) a decrease in the overall performance of the economic activities of enterprises;
3) - bureaucracy of management systems;

Inactivism is an orientation towards the present. With inactive planning, there is a desire to maintain the existing position of economic structures. The disadvantage of an inactive approach to planning is the lack of innovation, the inability to adapt to changes in the environment.

Reactivism is a future orientation. Planning consists in forecasting future transformations of the external environment and internal activities subjects of planning. The procedure for this type of planning is implemented "top-down".

The disadvantage of a preactive approach to planning is the little use of existing experience and the overuse of methods for studying future periods. The planning methodology is based on "designing" the desired future and exploring ways to build it.

Interactive planning is closer to the ideal than to the practical model of management and planning, since the method of planning the future is not limited by its design, but by adaptation, the effective adaptation of business entities to the circumstances of the future.

In order to formulate the best development plan that takes into account and uses all modifications of the environment, an "optimization" approach is used. Methodology of the optimization approach to planning aimed at finding best solutions, is very similar to the preactive approach.

The use of methodological approaches allows the inclusion of strategic planning in the general comparative scheme of planning types (table 1) and the classification structure of planning systems (table 2).

Table 1. Main types of planning

Planning type				Facilities	Orientation
Tactical			are selected	are selected	inactivism
Operating				are selected	reactivism
Regulatory	are selected	are selected	Are selected	are selected	interact
Strategic		are selected	are selected	are selected	preactivism

Table 2. Classification of planning systems

Classification attribute	Planning system type	Note
General planning orientation	Interactive planning Preactive planning Inactive planning Reactive planning
Planning time horizon	Long-term planning (long-term or strategic) Medium-term planning (tactical) Short-term planning Operational planning	10-15 years old up to 5 years old 1 year, 0.5 years, 3 months. week, day, hour
Centralization of planning functions	Centralized planning Decentralized planning	Characterized by a hierarchy of functions Independence in decision making
Targeting of plans	Normative planning Strategic planning Tactical planning Operational planning
Planning technologies	Discrete planning Rolling (continuous) scheduling	Plans for a certain period of time Transition plans are formed
Character functional links	Integrated planning Local planning	Vertical or horizontal coordination of plans Autonomous plans
Planning methodology	Functional planning Situational planning	Assumes the traditional development of plans in the context of management functions. The development of potential development scenarios and a system of alternative plans is foreseen.
The nature of the planned indicators	Directive planning Indicative planning	The plans are binding character, implementation is monitored The plans contain the most important positions and indicators, which are mainly advisory in nature
Planning object	General planning Planning at the business unit level	The plan covers all activities in general The scope of the plan is limited to the structural unit

In strategic planning, goals are understood as the desired state or the results of the functioning of the planning object at a given point in time. Objectives are goals, the achievement of which is desirable for a set period of time within the period of strategic planning. The objectives must be achievable during the planning period. An ideal is a goal that is impracticable to achieve, but to which one should strive.

In strategic planning at the macro level, the goals and objectives are in the concept of the socio-economic development of the state. For the subjects of the microeconomic degree, the unity of goals and missions constitute the concept of the development of the subjects, the preference for the established strategy.

In tactical planning, it is assumed the choice of tactical tasks and means of achieving them within the boundaries of a known strategy and ideal. Operational planning is the selection of the means to achieve the set goals. Normative planning is defined by maximum freedom in planning.

The concept of strategic planning within the framework of a systematic approach uses the following possibilities:

1) a system-integrated approach;
2) system-program approach;
3) the system-multiplier approach;
4) system-normative approach;
5) the approach of the systemic mode of economy;
6) the system-dynamic approach.

The systemic-integrated approach is the concretization and application of the systems approach to social systems (complexes). Each complex is a complex system and as a component of a higher-level system.

Such components used in unity include:

1) elemental;
2) structural;
3) functional;
4) target;
5) resource;
6) integrative;
7) communicative;
8) historical aspects.

The system-program (program-target) approach is the concretization and application of a systemic approach to solving local scientific, technical, economic, environmental "other tasks of strategic planning objects. Features of the system-program approach: the integrity of the target orientation, the complexity of activities, the certainty of the timing of implementation, targeting and source of resources.

In the course of the practical implementation of the approach, it is necessary to ensure:

1) scientific definition of the goal or system of goals of the planned system;
2) development of alternative variations of goal achievement;
3) establishing the volume and structure of resources;
4) development of a model for the functioning of the planned system;
5) search for preference criteria from the available basic solutions.

System-multiplication approach (multiplication - multiplication) - concretization and application of a systematic approach to the study of processes combined with the appearance and multiplication of effects.

System-normative approach - concretization of a systematic approach to strategic planning of requests of planning subjects to its objects for the best use of resources. The approach will take place in three courses:

1) the definition of social guidelines (the development of targeted instructions in strategic plans and programs to achieve a specified degree of state of the social system);
2) the application of the system of norms in production management and in other areas.

Development and application of a system of standards. A norm is an element-by-element component of a norm that determines the degree of use of a resource or its specific expenditure per unit of measurement. Economic standards reproduce social demands to the results of activities and determine the required level of resource use at the end result or establish relations for the distribution of the results of activities (depreciation charges, tax rates, management standards).

Systemic - saving mode approach - concretization and application of a systematic approach to research, development and substantiation of measures that ensure the fulfillment of the requirements of the law of economy in all areas of activity. The approach is used with the aim of developing measures and defining tasks for saving, replacing some resources with others, obsolete technologies with new ones. The saving mode corresponds to such a reduction in costs, where they are reduced by a unit of useful effect, i.e. unit costs.

The central directions of this approach are reducing the costs of fixed and working capital, saving living labor, natural resources, saving in the course of the circulation and use of goods and non-productive assets, saving non-working time.

The system-dynamic approach is a concretization, concretization and application of a systemic approach to the study, development of measures to speed up the development of strategic planning objects, and the growth of quality characteristics.

An important part of the strategic planning methodology is the planning logic. The planning logic is an ordered sequence, mutual consistency and justification of procedures associated with the intersection of any strategic planning problems.

The main structural elements of the logic of strategic planning:

1) finding and expressing the goal or system of goals of the subject of strategic planning in the planning period;
2) consideration of the starting level of development of the object of strategic planning in the period preceding the planned one, analysis of the parameters of the achieved level and its structure by the beginning of this period;
3) establishment of the structure and volume of the needs of society in the planning period;
4) detection of the volume and structure of resources at the beginning of the planning period and again formed in the planning period;
5) coordinating, balancing the needs and resources of socio-economic subsystems of different levels by overcoming temporary contradictions, inconsistencies between them on the basis of scaling, ranking, needs and training management decisions in the form of strategic forecasts, programs and plans.

The first element of logic will be realized in the course of drawing up programs, plans of subjects of strategic planning. The second element of the logic of strategic planning (consideration of the initial degree of the object of strategic planning) is determined by the state of resource potential of economic entities and the impact of reproduction factors on the subject in the preplanned period. The third element of the logic of strategic planning is the study of the volume and structure of the needs of society and its subsystems in the planning period.

The fourth element of the logic of strategic planning is the resources of society. The resources of a society are its capabilities: natural resource, labor, scientific and technical, economic, social, spiritual, foreign policy:

The fifth element of the logic of strategic planning is the coordination of resources and needs, bringing them into the best possible match with each other. At this stage, scaling, ranking of needs according to the criterion of maximum importance, allocation of a system of priorities in meeting needs are carried out. Based on the correspondence between needs and resources, it is possible to develop forecasts and generate strategic plans.

The logic of strategic planning is based on a number of positions. The planning principle is an objective category that formulates the general action of the laws of development and determines the tasks, directions and potentials of the implementation of strategic programs, projects and plans.

The first principle of planning is continuity, it manifests itself in the continuity of plans, correcting plans with the transformation of internal and external conditions.

The second principle is unity, a systemic nature of planning and implementation is assumed with the help of coordination (determination of functional interactions of one level of management) and integration (inter-level coordination of plans).

The third principle - planning flexibility - is the modification of the direction of plans depending on internal and external circumstances.

The fourth principle is the integrity of economics and politics. Planning documents analyzed in the role of socio-economic, organizational, technical and political decisions. The fifth principle - the integrity of centralism and independence is contained in the fact that projects of strategic decisions government agencies management takes into account the interests of economic entities that can autonomously conduct economic activities.

The sixth principle is the scientific soundness and effectiveness of strategic programs. The principle is expressed in the following:

1) practical use in planning the achievements of progress with the aim of restructuring the economy, greening production, supplying its social aspiration, a significant level of tension and labor productivity;
2) quick response to the transforming needs of society;
3) increasing the level of accuracy of planning information for drawing up and calculating strategic plans;
4) improvement of technologies in the development of plans.

Strategic planning methodology

http: // www. strategy. ***** / strategy2.htm - Strategic planning International Institute of Pitirim Sorokin and Nikolai Kondratyev (Minsk)

Let us briefly formulate (Fig. 1) the main provisions modern methodology strategic planning.

Rice. 1. Methodology of state strategic planning (SP)
1. Mission of strategic planning. The purpose of state strategic planning, its mission is to choose a system of strategic priorities of socio-economic, innovation-technological, environmental and territorial development(region), which will provide an optimal trajectory of dynamics for the future, taking into account real conditions and constraints (internal and external), and determine a set of means, ways, resources of movement along this trajectory in the long term (medium term).

In this definition, you need to pay attention to the following points:

mutually linked system of priorities

real

optimality

balance

financial resources

2. The horizon of the strategic plan. The prospects for which the strategic plan is designed should be sufficient for the successful solution of major problems associated with the change of generations of models, generations of technology and technological structures, changes in the trajectory of economic, environmental and territorial dynamics. From this point of view, a long-term strategic plan of 20-30 years is optimal. At the same time, it is obvious that achieving long-term goals requires certain, shorter stages that have their own characteristics (for example, at different phases of economic cycles). Therefore, a long-term strategic plan is combined with a medium-term one (for 5-10 years), which makes it possible to periodically move the horizon and, if necessary, adjust the set of priorities and generalizing indicators. Consequently, strategic planning, as in its origin in Russia (in the USSR), should be of a two-stage nature, combining a more general long-term perspective with a more detailed medium-term one. In this sense, strategic planning is continuous and undulating, just as life itself is continuous and undulating. The rejection of long-range guidance, long-term goals and priorities leads to strategic blindness, to the fussy action of the authorities by the method of "trial and error", to the goal of strategic mistakes, for which the country and the population are paying the price.

3. The object of strategic planning. Usually, the object of state strategic plans is considered to be the development of the economy, its main parameters are GDP growth rates, inflation, investments, etc. ... The trajectory of economic dynamics depends primarily on the primary factors and constraints - demographic (changes in the size and structure of the population, the level of its health and education, unemployment and migration) and natural and ecological (provision of development and life with the main types of natural resources, the level of environmental pollution and other environmental restrictions); and. moreover, the economy itself is not an end in itself, but only a means of ensuring the level, quality of life and safety of the population; this is the highest, ultimate goal of the existence and functioning of the state. Economic dynamics are directly determined by technological dynamics, innovative and technological renewal of resources and production priorities in the process of changing generations of technology and technological structures. The economy itself as an object of strategic dynamics is multifaceted - it cannot be reduced only to changes in GDP, many other generalizing indicators and processes should be taken into account - the rate of change in the levels and the ratio of prices and inflation, the dynamics and disproportion of real incomes of different population groups, the level of development (volume), etc. orientation of civilizations, institutional transformations, the functioning of the financial and credit mechanism, foreign economic relations, etc. In addition, it is necessary to take into account what influence the state-political factor and the factor of spiritual reproduction (development of science, education, culture, ethics, etc. ideology).

Consequently, the strategic plan should cover the entire structure of civilization - demographic and natural-ecological, technological and economic, state-political and socio-cultural factors. However, the degree and forms of influence on each of these groups of factors are not the same - if some of them are the object of direct influence of the state, then others (demographic, state-economic, socio-cultural groups of factors) can only be indirectly influenced, taking into account at the same time their reverse impact on the economy.

4. Accounting for cycles and crises. The long-term horizon of strategic planning requires taking into account the inevitable fluctuations of economic, cyclical and other dynamics in the phases of cycles - both medium-term (on average ten-year) and long-term, half-century (Kondratieff). It is necessary to assess in advance when the time of the next crisis comes, to determine its diagnosis, nature, consequences, limitations, and to integrate it into the strategic planning system. anti-crisis programs... In this case, both internal and external cyclical fluctuations should be taken into account, which may not fully coincide in time and nature. In the context of globalization and openness, economies can emerge suddenly and lead to major shocks and negative consequences. It is necessary to have at the ready a standard set of means and methods for responding to a crisis in order to put them into action as soon as the crisis becomes obvious, adjusting, if necessary, the indicators and balances of medium-term and long-term strategic plans.

5. The indicative nature of strategic plans. Due to the factors listed above, as well as the mixed nature of the market economy, excessive directiveness of generalizing indicators (indicators) of strategic plans should be avoided, their excessive detailing, so as not to be in the position: "It was smooth on paper, but forgot about the ravines." Indicators should be of orientation nature for independent producers, holdings, regions, municipalities. The object for the executive authorities, the public sector of the economy, the generalizing indicators of the strategic plan should be mandatory. They must be approved by the legislature and accountable for their implementation. Otherwise, the strategic plan will be only a subjunctive sum. good wishes, "a cloud in pants" covering the inefficiency and irresponsibility of government officials and top managers hired by the state.

6. Balance method. In order for strategic plans to be real and feasible, and not the fruit of wild fantasies and voluntaristic aspirations, they must rely on a system of prospective balances - both for the main types of resources (labor, natural, energy, raw materials, financial), and for the distribution and use of the social product. in accordance with the input-output methods (input-output) proposed by the Nobel laureate Vasily Vasilyevich Leontiev and developed in a multidimensional reproduction-cyclical macromodel. Each stage of strategic planning must be accompanied and verified by balance sheet calculations. The system of the model must also be ready to carry out multistep calculations of their factors and consequences in case of unexpected possible manifestations of disturbances and justify the necessary adjustments to the indicators (indicators) and balances of strategic plans.

7. Multilevel nature of strategic plans. The socio-economic system is multidimensional and multilevel, it is divided on different grounds - by national economic complexes and industries, by regions and municipalities, by economic structures, it has extensive and rapidly growing ties with foreign countries and the world market. Therefore, a principle-based mechanism for coordinating strategic plans of different subjects and hierarchical levels is needed: federal, regional and municipal; national and international; state and corporate, etc. Multidimensional coordination of interests should be carried out both in the development of a strategic plan and in its implementation. We need the openness of this process; Closure plays into the hands of non-professionals or officials and businessmen pursuing their own selfish interests.

8. Professionalism of strategic planning. Of the above characteristic features strategic planning, it is obvious that high-class professionals should be engaged in it. Lack of professionalism, lack of performers and decision makers (decision makers) of strategic thinking, scientific training and professional skills lead to major and sometimes tragic mistakes and miscalculations. I recall the warning of I. Krylov: "The trouble is if the shoemaker starts to bake the pies, and the cake-maker uses his boots." It is necessary to provide training, retraining, advanced training, internship, continuous distance education of civil servants (especially high ranks) and top managers of science, art, strategic planning.

9. Legal framework for strategic planning. The strategic and innovative function of the state is the most important and complex one, and it must be legislatively enshrined. Until now, there is no federal law on strategic planning, and its elements, presented in the Federal law of July 20, 1995, are actually not being implemented, or are not being implemented in time by the highest executive authorities. We need a basic federal law that defines the goals, structure, and development procedure. Consideration and implementation of long-term and medium-term strategic plans, monitoring for their implementation and responsibility for non-implementation. The concept of such a law has been developed and presented for public discussion (website www. Strategy. *****).

Consider some of the provisions of the theory and methodology of strategic planning, set forth in the textbook "Forecasting and strategic planning of socio-economic development."

Principles and forms of strategic planning

Strategic planning in general is the process of determining the goals of an organization (socio-economic structure) and their changes, as well as the resources necessary to achieve them, and the policy aimed at acquiring and using these resources1.

The given definition has developed as a generalization of the experience of strategic planning in large organizations (corporations). The further presentation of the techniques and principles of strategic planning bears the stamp of this experience, although it will strive to reach the level of their applicability to larger and more complex structures, such as national and regional economies. And the main question of the applicability of the relevant principles is in the degree of adequacy of the conditions strategic development organizations(corporations) and macrosystems.

There are four main components that determine the content and features of strategic planning and management in relation to the socio-economic system: goals and facilities their achievements, time(horizon) solutions and spatial system structure. The key component in strategies, of course, are the goals of the system (organization), which, however, will mean little in practice if they are considered in isolation from the other three components.

Usually stands out general goal development of an organization (system) is the broadest decision taken by an organization (or government) within the framework of strategic planning. Choosing a general goal means defining or clarifying missions organizations (systems). The mission characterizes in general terms what the organization is, why the latter exists and what is its unique place in the development space. For a country (region), the concept of a mission, of course, is not entirely appropriate; here it is better to operate with the concept of a general goal.

Once the general purpose of the organization (system) is defined, subgoals and general objectives can be selected. They can have a quantitative and qualitative form, but they must be sufficiently extended in time (stable) in nature. Formulated on the basis of goals and subgoals tasks are the specific, time-bound results that the organization intends to achieve in the course of implementing its strategy. In this vein strategy organization (system) appears as a general direction on which to look for ways to achieve goals.

Applied to economic organization Such changes in its appearance and functioning are considered to be the meaningful result of strategic planning:

reaching new levels of research and development and territories; approval of new types of products on the market; diversification of the portfolio of products and services; mergers and acquisitions of firms; reorganization and redistribution of powers and responsibilities within the organization; curtailment and liquidation of unprofitable industries; design and creation of new facilities; organization of personnel training; creation of new markets.

It is quite obvious that for the socio-economic system (national economy, region, etc.), the range of meaningful target characteristics of strategic programs should be different, broader in function and less detailed. But the general meaning of the strategic approach to the prospects within macrosystems is in many respects close to what is being implemented in the course of strategic management successful corporations. The main thing is to move away from a purely situational response to changes in the environment and the transition to a proactive response, which provides for the early inclusion of new factors that can, to one degree or another, purposefully change the environment itself.

Strategic planning at the level of the socio-economic system can be successful provided a balanced attitude to the real possibilities and contradictions of the principles of strategic planning and management.

First, strategic management is not only and not just pre-compiled plan, it is also type (model) of behavior... The world is too complex, therefore, a detailed strategy building in relation to the socio-economic system from the first step to the end is meaningless if we do not mean the constant concretization of strategies and shifting some of the targets into the form of indicative plans and specific projects. Strategies should be developed gradually, step by step, as the "training" of the bodies (personnel) of strategic management takes place and ideas that have not justified themselves are cut off.

Second, success comes when a strategy is designed and directed top management organizations (in relation to the national economy - the head of state or government). Therefore, one of the key principles is the fulfillment of the functions of strategic planning by the top managers themselves. No matter how important the role of professional planners in the process of strategic planning, they are not the creators of strategies, they are, in essence, nothing more than assistants. At the same time, the real employment of top management is usually such that its role as an architect of strategies is often reduced to just approving the options for strategies, and not to "building" them. In addition, the roles and interests of political leaders differ significantly from those of firm leaders: the motivation of politicians is largely tied to election cycles. Therefore, the subjects of responsibility for strategy on the scale of socio-economic systems should be linked to public interests and democratic control in a historical manner. The creation of mechanisms for responsible participation in the strategic process of experts and professional planners, on the one hand, and top management, on the other, is one of the most difficult problems of strategic planning at the level of macrosystems.

Third, strategic processes in socio-economic systems are complex a combination of securing readiness for large-scale changes and factors of stability... In a strategically oriented system, top management must be able to maintain balance and order, ensure the overall effectiveness of the structure, and at the same time, it is necessary to be innovators, reform the organizational structure, adapt, respond, learn. Therefore, in serious works on strategic management, strategy is presented as a concept associated not with change, but with stability. It is the pursuit of sustainability and consistency that drives organizations to develop and implement strategies2.

Fourthly, the investment of funds and time for the formation of strategic plans should be sufficient, but not too large. "The very nature of strategic decisions, which allows the planner not to rush to make a choice, can contribute," W. King and D. Cleland note, additional information... And since no information can be considered sufficient, there is a danger that strategic decisions will not be accepted at all. "3 Therefore, excessive enthusiasm for scientific and intellectual elaboration of strategies and justification of plans can create" paralysis of management "due to the very propensity for analytics.

Development and periodic refinements of the Concept of the country's socio-economic development are provided for by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation "On State Forecasting and Programs of Socio-Economic Development Russian Federation"dated 01.01.01. However, in practice, such a concept is not developed or published.

The introduction into regular practice of procedures for the development of strategic plans for the country's socio-economic development based on long-term forecasts is associated at the present stage with overcoming the prejudices that have developed among a significant part of the Russian "elite" in the interpretation of the compatibility of "strategic plans and programs" at the macro level with the market nature of the economic system ... These biases, which gave rise to the primitivization of the postulates taken as the methodological basis of market reforms, to some extent in a retrospective manner, can be explained (and justified) by the transience of events and the costs of an acute political struggle, but further persistence on this issue cannot be allowed. no matter what sophisticated arguments from the field of theories of "denationalization", etc., are made by the adherents of the "pure market".

"Today - for the first time in a long time - we can predict our life not for several months, not even for a year, but for decades ahead," the president emphasized in his message to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation dated 01.01.01. This important statement is evidence of radically changed conditions for transforming our economy and at the same time an indicator of the increased maturity of the conceptual vision of the mechanisms of the country's strategic development.

1 Strategic planning and economic policy. M .: Progress, 1982.S. 26.

2 cm.: Lampel J. Schools of strategies / Per. from English SPb: Publishing house "Peter", 2000. S. 303.

3 Strategic planning and economic policy. - M .: Progress, 1982.S. 145.

A set of methods, or methodology for strategic planning, is part of the methodology for strategic planning.

Under strategic planning method they understand the specific method (technique) by which any planning problem is solved, the numerical values of the indicators of forecasts, strategic programs and plans are calculated. Strategic planning methodology is a set of methods, techniques for developing, substantiating and analyzing forecasts, strategic programs and plans of all levels, as well as a system for calculating planned indicators and their mutual linkage.

Drawing up a plan implies, first of all, solving various problems that reveal the differences between the actual and the desired state of the planning object. Different planning methods are used depending on the nature of the problem.

There are the following planning problems:

1. Standard. Such problems are well structured, the connections are strictly defined, that is, a change in the cause leads to an unambiguous change in the result. An example of a problem is the calculation of the amount of materials for the production of goods on the existing equipment with the available human resources.
2. Structured. The correlation between the cause and the result in such problems is quite close, that is, a change in the cause is reflected in the result, as a rule, with a certain interval "from and to" (an increase in labor productivity depending on the capital and power supply).
3. Weakly structured problems. In such problems, the connection between cause and effect is weak, since other factors affect it. This is reflected in the change in the result in a very large range of values "from and to" (for example, the implementation of a demographic policy to increase the birth rate).
4. Unstructured. In this case, connections can be established only on the basis of logical analysis (for example, the development of science in the long term).

Differences in the degree of structuring of problems determine the differences in the applied methods of strategic planning. These include: expert (evaluative) methods, methods of socio-economic analysis, methods of direct engineering and economic calculations, balance method, economic-mathematical methods and models, methods of system analysis and synthesis.

Expert (evaluative) methods also called heuristic, or methods of expert assessments. This is a complex of logical and mathematical procedures aimed at obtaining information from specialists, analyzing and generalizing it in order to prepare and develop rational decisions in planning and forecasting.

Expert assessment methods can be divided into individual and collective. They differ in that in the first case, the individual opinion of all members of the working group is revealed, regardless of the others, and in the second, a collective decision is developed when working in a group.

1. Individual: questionnaire survey methods, in-depth interviews and the Delphi method. The main advantage of individual methods is the ability to deeply study the issue with each of the experts without pressure from them. Their disadvantage is subjective assessment.

Questionnaire- collection of opinions (verbally or in writing) in the form of answers to questions on a particular problem, followed by statistical processing of survey questionnaires by specialists.

In-depth interview- a method in which the questions asked do not imply a simple answer "yes" or "no", but require a detailed answer. An in-depth interview is carried out according to a pre-planned plan in the form of informal negotiations.

Delphi method(method of the Delphic oracle) involves an interactive survey procedure. At the same time, it is necessary to observe the lack of communication between experts and the anonymity of assessments. The procedure includes several stages of questioning specialists with the provision of assessment results after each stage. The results of the survey at each stage are processed, identified general patterns and differences in the conduct of evaluations and proceeding to the next stage.

2. Collective. These are methods of: a) business games; b) meetings;
c) brainstorming and d) judgment. Their main advantage lies in the multilateral study of the problem. Their disadvantages: difficulties in organizing the procedure for obtaining expert opinion and in forming a group opinion on individual judgments, as well as the danger of suppression by the authority of the rest of the group.

Business game method based on modeling the functioning of the social management system when performing operations aimed at achieving the set goal. Unlike other collective methods, business games involve the active activity of an expert group, each member of which is assigned a certain responsibility in accordance with pre-drawn rules and a program.

Meeting method(commissions, round table) involves a meeting or discussion to work out a common opinion or a solution to a problem. During the meeting, the members of the working group can not only express their opinions, but also criticize the opinions of others.

Brainstorming method(brainstorming) is based on the collective generation of ideas, that is, expressing opinions free from criticism about the solution of the problem, followed by the selection of the most valuable ones and the development of an appropriate solution.

Court method is a kind of the consultation method and is implemented by analogy with the trial. The defendants are selectable solutions, the judges are decision-makers, and the roles of prosecutors and defenders are members of the expert group. When conducting such a "trial", certain decisions are rejected or made.

It is advisable to use expert methods when solving mostly unstructured and semi-structured problems.

Socio-economic analysis method is a comprehensive study of socio-economic reality, internal connections between phenomena and their mutual dependence in order to determine progressive development trends and production opportunities, as well as social relations.

The analysis uses such working methods as comparison, selective study of the work of large objects of strategic planning, groupings, chain statements, calculating balance differences, indices, calculating regression and correlation coefficients, the method of principal components, etc. Methods socio-economic analysis are used to solve problems of all classes.

Methods of direct engineering and economic calculations are used in the design of production growth at enterprises - the calculations of market needs for a given type of product and the possibilities of its production. At industrial enterprises, such calculations cover: improving the use of production facilities, raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, labor resources(personnel); reduction in production costs, etc.

A special place among the engineering and economic calculations used in strategic planning is occupied by calculations economic efficiency production, investment, profitability of securities, used credit resources, currency conversion and interest growth (simple and complex), etc.

Engineering and economic calculations are often based on a system of norms. In this case, the following are used:

1. Norms for the use of fixed assets.
2. Norms for the use of circulating assets (raw materials).
3. Rates of labor costs and labor intensity of products (production rates, rates of use of working time).
4. Standards for the organization of production processes (time spent on repairing equipment, creating stocks of raw materials, materials, etc.).
5. Norms of product quality (content of useful substances in the product, indicators of reliability and durability, etc.).
6. Specific capital investments. Payback rates for capital expenditures, etc.
7. Rates of production and circulation costs, rates of profitability.

The methods of engineering and economic calculations are widely used in solving standard and structured problems.

Under balance method strategic planning is understood as a set of techniques used to ensure the linkage and agreement of interdependent indicators. The purpose of these techniques is to achieve a balance (equilibrium) between indicators.

The balance method is an important tool for analyzing and forecasting the development of the national economy. With its help, it is possible to identify the directions of movement of material and financial flows in the country, to determine the material and cost proportions in the economy, to model their quantitative parameters for the future, to get an idea of the state of equilibrium of the socio-economic system, to calculate the necessary increase in various factors of production in order to create material basis to meet the market needs for material goods and services. The balances used by the firm also make it possible to judge its available production capacities, their dynamics in the forecast period, the degree of utilization; plan the production of the firm's products in marketing monitoring; to get a clear idea of the resources of the fund of working hours of equipment and production capacities and its (equipment) use in production, as well as of the fund of working time of personnel, its structure and directions of saving; prepare the planned budget of the company; solve other problems.

It is a mistake to confuse the balance sheet method with the development of only one balance sheet. The system of balances covers all sections of programs and plans. When compiling them, both balance sheet and other methods of strategic planning are used. The balance method is widely used in solving problems of all types of structuring.

Economic and mathematical methods are specific techniques for analyzing social economic systems, equilibrium of the economy, forecasting economic growth. Economic and mathematical models are of great importance for the practice of strategic planning. The most important economic and mathematical models used in strategic planning are: the system of national accounts, the balance sheet "Input - output", the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the input-output balance sheet, the inter-industry balance of production and the distribution of products and services, the balance of financial resources and costs, matrix models of the technical financial plan, network models, etc. ...

Economic and mathematical methods and models are applicable to solving standard and structured problems. With the help of linear programming, the tasks of production planning are successfully solved: 1) drawing up an optimal program for the production of products with a given labor and material resources; 2) optimal loading of equipment.

A special group is made up of the tasks of rational cutting of industrial materials and the task of composing mixtures that are used in many industries (metallurgy, oil refining, chemical, food, etc.).

Great opportunities are opened up by the use of linear programming in planning agricultural production - for solving the problems of allocating acreage between different crops, rational planning crop rotations, calculating the optimal combination of agricultural production branches, determining the best herd structure, the most effective rations for feeding livestock, etc.

The overwhelming majority of dependencies in the economy are non-linear. Therefore, other types of programming have been developed: nonlinear, dynamic, stochastic.

Specificity method of system analysis and synthesis consists in the dismemberment, decomposition of economic systems and the processes occurring in them into their component parts and on this basis the determination of the leading links, bottlenecks, key problems of future development.

The solution of complex problems associated with the development of strategic plans for the development of production systems at various levels is provided by a comprehensive perspective analysis.

An increase in the complexity of the analysis is associated with its direction not only on the functioning of production systems, but also on the achieved level of their structural development.

Based on the analysis of the state of the organization (considered as a result and as an activity, the conduct of which is aimed at increasing the efficiency of production systems), the initial positions of the new plan are determined.

Comprehensive analysis is inseparable from the synthesis of long-term development problems. Analysis and synthesis are a single methodological whole. The method of systems analysis and synthesis can be used to solve all the problems of strategic planning.

Strategic planning toolkit depends on the object and the planning horizon. There are the following strategic planning tools:

1. The "mind map" method.
2. The "Porter's five forces" model. Structural logic method.
3. Strategic analysis:
1) analysis of the external environment of the organization;
- SWOT analysis;
2) analysis of the internal environment of the organization;
- SNW analysis;
- portfolio analysis;
- scenario planning, etc.

The mind map method(mind map). This technique, developed by T. Buzan, is a special case of the goal tree. The technique is interesting primarily because it allows you to structure the thought process and stimulate step-by-step thinking. This method is almost universal, it can be used in a variety of situations: to clarify an issue, collect information, make a decision. It is best used when new ideas need to be structured - during the planning stage. The method is based on the process of radiant thinking, when the main problem is taken and from it, like from a tree trunk, various ideas associated with it are branched off.

Porter's five forces is a methodology for analyzing industries and developing a business strategy, developed by M. Porter at Harvard Business School in 1979. The methodology identifies five forces that determine the level of competition, and, therefore, the attractiveness of doing business in a particular industry. The attractiveness of the industry in this context is expressed in its profitability. Accordingly, an unattractive industry is one in which the combination of forces reduces profitability. The most unattractive industry is the one where the market situation is close to "perfect competition". Porter's analysis of 5 forces includes three forces of horizontal competition — the threat of substitute products, the threat of new entrants, the level of competition — and the two forces of vertical competition — the bargaining power of suppliers and the bargaining power of consumers.

Strategic analysis. The analysis of the external environment of the organization should be carried out constantly, since its result is the receipt of information, on the basis of which assessments of the current position of the company are given. This type of analysis gives the organization time to: a) predict opportunities; b) drawing up a contingency plan; c) development of an early warning system in case of possible threats; d) developing strategies that can turn old threats into any profitable opportunities. There are seven areas of threat and opportunity that an organization typically faces. This is the economy, politics, market, technology, legal regulation, international status and social behavior.

The state of the economy can influence the goals of an organization. Several factors (including those identified above as threats and opportunities) in the economic environment must be continuously diagnosed and evaluated.

SWOT analysis. To conduct environmental analysis, organizations use the so-called SWOT analysis, that is, an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the organization, as well as the opportunities and threats emanating from the environment. The same matrices are made for competitors. First, a general SWOT analysis matrix is drawn up (Table I). Then the so-called auxiliary matrices are compiled. The information presented in the auxiliary matrices is transferred to the main one and is used to summarize the analysis results. There are two such matrices - the matrix of opportunities and the matrix of threats.

Table 1

SWOT Matrix

In the process of performing a SWOT analysis, it is also recommended to draw up an environmental profile, that is, a table in which environmental factors that have or may have a significant impact on the organization should be noted. Then, for each factor, the degree of its importance for the industry, the degree of influence on the organization, the direction of this influence are determined, and the cumulative degree of impact is calculated for each factor and in general.

Analysis of the internal environment of the organization reveals the opportunities and the potential that the firm can count on in the competitive struggle in the process of achieving its goals. It also allows you to better understand the goals of the organization, to more accurately formulate the mission, that is, to determine the meaning of the firm's activities and its direction. It should be remembered that the organization not only produces products for consumers, but also gives work to its employees, provides them with the opportunity to participate in profits, provides social guarantees, etc.

The analysis of the internal environment of the company is carried out in the following areas:

- personnel, their potential, qualifications, interests, etc .;
- management organization;
- production, its organizational, operational and technical and technological characteristics, as well as Scientific research and development;
- finance;
- marketing;
- organizational culture.

SNW Analysis - This is an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the organization, the internal environment is assessed according to three values: Strength, Neutral and Weakness. As practice has shown, in a situation of strategic analysis of the internal environment of an organization, it is best to fix the average market state for a given situation as a neutral position. Usually SNW analysis is used for a deeper study of the internal environment of the organization after the SWOT analysis.

Portfolio analysis - it is a tool by which the management of an enterprise identifies and evaluates its economic activities in order to invest in the most profitable or promising areas of it and to stop investing in ineffective projects. At the same time, the relative attractiveness of the markets and the competitiveness of the enterprise in each of these markets are assessed. It is assumed that the company's portfolio must be balanced, that is, the right combination of products that need capital for further development with economic units that have some excess capital must be ensured. The purpose of portfolio analysis is to harmonize business strategies and allocate financial resources between the business units of the company. Portfolio analysis in general view is carried out according to the following scheme:

1. All activities of the organization (product range) are broken down into strategic business units and levels are selected for analyzing the business portfolio.
2. The relative competitiveness of individual business units and the development prospects of the respective markets are determined. In this case, the collection and analysis of data is carried out in the following areas:
- - the attractiveness of the industry;
- - competitive position;
- - opportunities and threats to the firm;
- - resources and qualifications of personnel.
3. Portfolio matrices (strategic planning matrices) are built and analyzed and the desired portfolio of businesses and the desired competitive position are determined.
4. A strategy is developed for each business unit, and business units with similar strategies are combined into homogeneous groups.

Next, management evaluates the strategies of all divisions in terms of their relevance to the corporate strategy, weighing the profit and resources required by each division using portfolio analysis matrices. At the same time, business portfolio analysis matrices by themselves are not a decision-making tool. They only show the state of the business portfolio, which should be considered by management when making a decision.

Scenario planning - part of strategic planning related to the tools and technologies that allow you to manage the uncertainty of the future. The essence of the method is to study the external environment of an organization in order to identify predetermined elements and key uncertainties and combine them to formulate alternative scenarios of the future.

Demographic factors (for example, the number of adolescents between 10 and 15 years of age is predetermined in 10 years, since many of them have already been born), as well as political, technological and geographic factors, often act as predetermined elements.

Any elements of the external environment that are important for a given organization (for example, the level of government deficit or the size of the market) can act as key uncertainties.

All alternative scenarios must combine the entire set of predefined elements and various outcomes of key uncertainties. Scenario planning considers all scenarios to be equally possible in the future.

An enterprise portfolio, or corporate portfolio, is a set of relatively independent business units (strategic business units) belonging to one owner.

Keywords

METHODOLOGY / STRATEGIC ANALYSIS/ COMPETITION / VALUE CHAIN/ SWOT ANALYSIS / ENTERPRISE STRATEGY / STRATEGIC PLAN/ METHODOLOGY / STRATEGIC ANALYSIS / COMPETITION / VALUE CHAIN / SWOT-ANALYSIS / BUSINESS STRATEGY / STRATEGIC PLAN

annotation scientific article on economics and business, the author of the scientific work - Gaiduk Vladimir Ivanovich, Takakho Eldar Eristemovich

The principles and methods of strategic planning are given. Toolkit explored strategic analysis, development enterprise strategies and strategic plan... When implementing the process of strategic planning, the development of an enterprise development strategy, an analysis of the internal and external environment was used: PEST analysis, M. Porter's five forces model, management survey, analysis " value chains"M. Porter and McKinsey's management analysis system CVP-analysis (Cost Volume Profit), SWOT-analysis. Based on the analysis of the internal and external environment carried out at the enterprise, as well as the SWOT analysis, it is proposed enterprise strategy... Among all the methods of portfolio analysis in the framework of strategic planning, the authors distinguish three of the most famous: the method of the Boston Advisory Group (BCG); McKinsey model; model ADL / LC (concept life cycle). Comprehensive strategic plan, as well as the system of its implementation and management, since the previously developed strategy is a generalized idea of the directions of the organization's development. The research carried out by the authors is based on the use of the following groups of methods: program-targeted; economic and mathematical methods (simulation modeling of queuing systems; theory of production functions; dynamic modeling) and methods network planning

METHODS AND TOOLS OF STRATEGY PLANNING

The principles and the methods of strategic planning were shown in the article. We have investigated the tools of strategic analysis, strategy development and enterprise strategic plan. In the implementation of the strategic planning process the strategic development of the company we use the analysis of internal and external environment: PEST-analysis, five forces model of Michael Porter, administrative examination, analysis of the “value chain” by M. Porter and system management analysis of Mc Kinsey CVP-analysis (Cost Volume Profit), SWOT-analysis. On the basis of the analysis of the company’s internal and external environment, as well as the SWOT-analysis, we have a proposed a business strategy. Among all the methods of portfolio analysis in strategic planning, the authors identify three of the most famous ones: the method of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG); model of McKinsey; Model of ADL / LC (a concept of life cycle). We have also substantiated a comprehensive strategic plan, as well as its system implementation and management, because the previously developed strategy was a generalized idea of the direction of the organization. The research made by the authors was based on the use of the following groups of methods: target program; economic-mathematical methods (simulation of queuing systems, theory of production functions, dynamic modeling) and methods of network planning

1. Introduction

2. The concept of strategic planning

3. Organizational goals

4. Assessment and analysis of the external environment

5. Analysis of the state and coefficients of strategic development

6. Types of strategic planning

7. Choosing a development strategy

8. Strategic planning methodology

9. Methods of strategic planning

10. Conclusion

11. List of used literature

1. Introduction

For an enterprise of any form of ownership and any scale of economic activity, it is essential to manage economic activities, define a strategy, as well as planning. Currently leaders Russian enterprises are forced to make economic decisions in conditions of uncertainty about the consequences of such decisions, moreover, with a lack of economic, commercial knowledge and practical experience of work in new conditions.

Many economic zones in which enterprises operate are characterized by an increased risk, because there is insufficient knowledge about consumer behavior, the position of competitors, about the correct choice of partners, there are no reliable sources of obtaining commercial and other information. In addition, Russian managers have no experience in managing firms in market conditions. There are many problems in the marketing activities of Russian enterprises. The managers of enterprises producing final or intermediate products feel constraints from the effective demand of the population and consumer enterprises. The issue of sales came under the direct control of the management of the enterprises. As a rule, state-owned enterprises did not have and do not have qualified sales personnel. Now almost all enterprises have realized the importance of the sales program. Most of them have to deal with tactical issues, because many have already faced the problem of overstocking of warehouses with their products and a sharp drop in demand for it. The strategy of product sales on the market remained unclear. Trying to change the assortment, many enterprises producing products for industrial purposes are beginning to switch to consumer goods. If products are manufactured for industrial purposes, then in some cases the enterprises also develop divisions that consume these products. While rebuilding the assortment, enterprises began to forecast sales in advance and find consumers for their products.

When choosing consumers, managers take into account: direct contact, communication with the end consumer, the customer's ability to pay. The search for new consumers, the development of new markets (some managers are looking for new consumers on their own) have become very important for the enterprise.

Also, a new phenomenon has been noticed - the relationship of enterprises with new commercial structures, which are often engaged in the sale of part of the enterprise's products, and the rest is sold through the old channels. In addition, the company can turn to the company on all complex issues of production support. One of the tactics of ensuring the sale of products in modern Russian reality, in conditions when the domestic effective demand for products is limited, is entering the international market. However, this is possible only for enterprises with a high level of production technology that ensures the competitiveness of their products.

Thus, the management and strategic management of the enterprise is necessary in any area of economic activity. At the same time, there are still many problems and significant shortcomings that require an early resolution, which, in turn, will allow the Russian economy to achieve stabilization and progressive development.

2. The concept of strategic planning.

Planning- the process of determining goals, strategies, as well as measures to achieve them for a certain period of time based on assumptions about the future probable conditions for the implementation of the plan.

Strategic planning- This is one of the management functions, which is the process of choosing the goals of the organization and ways to achieve them. Strategic planning provides the basis for all management decisions, organizational functions, motivation and control are focused on the development of strategic plans. The dynamic process of strategic planning is the umbrella under which all management functions are hidden, without taking advantage of the advantages of strategic planning, the organization as a whole and individuals will be deprived of a clear way of assessing the purpose and direction of the corporate enterprise. The strategic planning process provides a framework for managing the members of an organization. Projecting all of the above on the realities of the situation in our country, it can be noted that strategic planning is becoming more and more relevant for Russian enterprises that enter into fierce competition both among themselves and with foreign corporations.

The concept of "planning" includes the definition of goals and ways to achieve them. In the West, the planning of the activities of enterprises is carried out in such important areas as sales, finance, production and procurement. At the same time, of course, all private plans are interconnected with each other.

The development of a strategic plan is based on an analysis of the prospects for the development of an organization under certain assumptions about changes in the external environment in which it operates. Essential element this analysis is to determine the position of the organization in the competition for the markets for its products. Based on this analysis, the development goals of the organization are formed, strategic business units are formed and strategies for their achievement are selected.

Requirements for the strategic plan

Several key messages related to strategy need to be understood and, more importantly, accepted by senior management. First of all, the strategy is mostly formulated and developed by senior management, but its implementation involves the participation of all levels of management. The strategic plan must be supported by extensive research and evidence. To compete effectively in today's business world, an enterprise must constantly collect and analyze a huge amount of information about the industry, competition and other factors.

The strategic plan gives the enterprise certainty, individuality, which allows it to attract certain types of workers, and, at the same time, not to attract workers of other types. This plan opens up a perspective for the business that guides its employees, brings in new employees, and helps sell products or services.

Finally, strategic plans must be designed to not only remain consistent over long periods of time, but also be flexible enough to be modified and reoriented as needed. The overall strategic plan should be seen as the program that guides the firm's activities over an extended period of time, realizing that a conflicting and constantly changing business and social environment makes constant adjustments inevitable.

The strategy is a detailed, comprehensive, comprehensive plan. It should be developed from the perspective of the entire corporation rather than a specific individual. Rarely is the founder of a firm able to afford to combine personal plans with organizational strategies. The strategy involves the development of reasonable measures and plans to achieve the intended goals, which should take into account the scientific and technical potential of the company and its production and marketing needs. The strategic plan must be supported by extensive research and evidence. Therefore, it is necessary to constantly collect and analyze a huge amount of information about the sectors of the national economy, the market, competition, etc. In addition, the strategic plan gives the firm a certainty, personality that allows it to attract certain types of workers and helps sell products or services. Strategic plans must be designed in such a way that they not only remain coherent over time, but also remain flexible. The overall strategic plan should be seen as the program guiding the firm's operations over an extended period of time, subject to constant adjustments in response to an ever-changing business and social environment.

Strategic planning alone does not guarantee success, and an organization that creates strategic plans can fail due to organizational, motivational and control errors. Nevertheless, formal planning can create a number of significant favorable factors for the organization of the enterprise. Knowing what the organization wants to achieve helps clarify the most appropriate courses of action. By making informed and systematic planning decisions, management reduces the risk of making the wrong decision due to erroneous or inaccurate information about the organization's capabilities or about the external situation. Thus, planning helps to create unity of common purpose within the organization.

Rice. 1. Development of goals for the company.

The planning process in a company begins with defining the initial goals of its development and activities, the development of which is based on goals and missions (Fig. 1). In essence, mission goals, or main strategic goals, are a vision of what a company should be or what it should fight for. They should reflect the interests of all groups of influence (shareholders, managers, employees and workers, suppliers, banks, government agencies, local governments, public organizations, etc.). Mission objectives should emphasize the social importance of the company and serve as a means of consolidation and motivation of the company's personnel. The interests of stakeholders and organizations (influence groups) are also taken into account when developing the initial goals of the company.

The original targets are passed through a triple filter: resources available in the country and abroad, environment, as well as internal capabilities and results of the company. The last two filters are essentially situational analysis. The results of the situational analysis are often summarized in a section of the marketing plan called "SWOT analysis". The results of the situational analysis also include assumptions about the future operating conditions of the organization, as well as forecast estimates of the expected demand in potential markets during the period of the marketing plan. Based on these assumptions and estimates, the following sections of the marketing plan set marketing objectives, select strategies, and design marketing programs.

Figure 1. Strategic planning process

Each leader should have an idea of how strategic planning should be carried out (diagram 1).

3. Organizational goals

Company-wide goals are formulated and established based on the organization’s overall mission and specific values and goals for which top management is guided. To truly contribute to the success of an organization, goals must have a number of characteristics.

Organizational goals (corporate) are the endpoints of the organization's mission statement to which it aims.

1. First, the goals should be specific and measurable. By expressing their goals in concrete, measurable forms, management creates a clear reference point for subsequent decisions and assessments of progress.

2. Specific forecast horizon is another characteristic of effective goals. Goals are usually set for long or short periods of time. Long term goal has a planning horizon of approximately five years. Short term goal in most cases represents one of the organization's plans, which should be completed within a year. Medium-term goals have a planning horizon of one to five years.

3. The goal should be achievable, - to serve to improve the efficiency of the organization.

4. To be effective, the organization's multiple objectives must be mutually supportive - that is, the actions and decisions necessary to achieve one goal should not interfere with the achievement of other goals.

Objectives will only be a meaningful part of the governance process if top management articulates them correctly, then institutionalizes them effectively, communicates them, and stimulates their implementation throughout the organization. The strategic management process will be successful to the extent that senior management is involved in setting goals and to the extent that those goals reflect the values of the leadership and the realities of the firm.

Overall production goals are formulated and established based on the overall mission of the enterprise and specific values and goals that top management is guided by. To truly contribute to the success of an enterprise, goals must have a number of characteristics:

specific and measurable goals / orientation of goals in time / achievable goals.

1. General (global) developed for the firm as a whole: a) reflect the concept of the firm; b) developed for the long term; c) determine the main directions of the company's development programs; d) must be clearly articulated and linked to resources; e) ranking goals based on priority.

2. Specific goals are developed within the framework of general goals for the main activities in each production unit of the company and are expressed in quantitative and qualitative indicators (profitability, rate of return).

4. Assessment and analysis of the external environment.

After establishing its mission and goals, the company's management begins the diagnostic phase of the strategic planning process. On this path, the first step is to study the external environment:

assessment of changes affecting various aspects of the current strategy;

identification of factors that pose a threat to the current strategy of the firm; control and analysis of competitors' activities; identification of factors that present more opportunities for achieving corporate goals by adjusting plans.

Analysis of the external environment helps to control external factors in relation to the firm, to obtain important results (time to develop an early warning system in case of possible threats, time to predict opportunities, time to draw up a contingency plan and time to develop strategies). To do this, it is necessary to find out where the organization is located, where it should be located in the future and what management should do for this. The threats and opportunities facing the firm can be categorized into seven areas:

1. Economic forces ... Certain factors in the economic environment must be constantly diagnosed and evaluated because the state of the economy affects the goals of the firm. These are inflation rates, international balance of payments, employment levels, etc. Each of them can be either a threat or new opportunity for the enterprise.

2. Political factors ... The active participation of entrepreneurial firms in the political process is an indication of the importance of public policy for the organization; therefore, the state must monitor regulatory documents local authorities, the authorities of the subjects of the state and the federal government.

3. Market factors ... The market environment is an ongoing threat to the firm. Factors influencing the success and failure of an organization include income distribution, the level of competition in the industry, changing demographic conditions, and ease of market penetration.

4. Technological factors. Analysis of the technology environment can at least take into account changes in manufacturing technology, the use of computers in the design and provision of goods and services, or advances in communications technology. The leader of any firm must be careful not to be exposed to a “shock of the future” that destroys the organization.

5. Competition factors ... Any organization should investigate the actions of its competitors: analysis of future goals and assessment of the current strategy of competitors, an overview of the premises in relation to competitors and the industry in which these companies operate, an in-depth study of the strengths and weaknesses of competitors.

6. Social Behavior Factors ... These factors include changing attitudes, expectations and mores of society (the role of entrepreneurship, the role of women and national minorities in society, the movement to protect the interests of consumers).

7. International factors ... Management of companies operating on international market must constantly evaluate and monitor changes in this wider environment.

That. analysis of the external environment allows an organization to create a list of the dangers and opportunities it faces in that environment. For successful planning, management must have a complete understanding not only of significant external problems, but also of the internal potentialities and weaknesses of the organization.

5. Analysis of the state and coefficients of development of strategic planning

A successful choice of strategy requires a deep analysis of the existing directions in the organization, its position in the struggle, prospects for the future, as well as its development trends. Based on the analysis, priorities in resource allocation are developed. The object of analysis is the strategic data base, which represents the most essential characteristics of the internal and external conditions of the organization and its main partners. Based on the analysis, conclusions are formed regarding 10-15 of the most significant factors affecting the organization's activities, identifying strengths and weaknesses, as well as the impact on it and what are the trends of this impact, thereby drawing a reliable portrait of the organization's future.

The analysis of the strategic database is carried out in three areas:

Objective assessment the position of the organization as a whole.

Research on the effectiveness of its work in the past and present; the vitality of the organizational structure, management system.

Functioning model of technical and technological potential, preference for leadership; the specifics of the business moral atmosphere and other issues of the life of the company.

External environment of the organization ... Its real reputation, the manufactured products in the eyes of business partners and consumers are clarified, market trends, real potential consumers are investigated, the range of goods and services that makes sense to focus on is determined.

The obstacles hindering development, the discrepancy between goals and means to achieve them, and possible industrial conflicts are identified.

6. Types of strategic planning

There are the following types of strategic planning:

Long term (long-term) planning. Since when developing plans go from the future to the present, plans designed for a shorter period become an integral part of promising ones. Long-term plans reflect long-term goals and a general strategy of action. The developed alternative strategies are not included in the plan, but are reflected in special programs contained in the appendices. Long-term plans include indicators and proposals, which are reflected in generalized, most often financial, indicators. Long-term plans are developed for a period of 5 to 10 years.

Medium term planning. They are based on the real demand for the organization's products, changes in its characteristics in the near future, restructuring of production technology, financial constraints, market conditions, the risk of losing a partner, etc. Medium-term plans are developed for a period of 1 to 5 years.

Short term planning. This planning covers a period of several weeks or months. It is aimed at regulating the current use of resources and is implemented through the preparation of calendar programs for production and control over it, management of inventories and received loans.

Operational planning. The task of operational planning includes control over the daily load of equipment, the sequence of operations, the placement of workers, etc.

7. Choosing a development strategy

Based on the available strategic data base, forecasts and assumptions, the company begins to select strategic alternatives for its development.

There are four types of alternatives:

Limited growth;

Reduction;

A combination of the three previous alternatives in varying proportions.

Growth strategy assumes an annual growth of the main indicators of the organization, it is most often used by enterprises in dynamically developing sectors of the national economy, with rapidly changing technologies, as well as enterprises striving for diversification (wide penetration into new areas of activity). It happens that firms cannot withstand rapid and short-term growth and go bankrupt, so most firms adhere to a limited growth strategy, expanding their activities taking into account the real possibilities of the achieved level and external efforts. This is the least risky course of action.

Strategic reduction expressed in the fact that the results of the firm's work in the planning period are assumed to be lower than in the previous period. This strategy is applied when it comes to the fundamental restructuring of the organization. And if short-sighted leaders try to restructure the organization's activities while maintaining the same growth, then the results are usually negative.

Reduction is done in different ways :

Complete liquidation of the company and the creation of a new one in its place;

Getting rid of unnecessary elements;

Narrowing the scale of the firm, its activities with a simultaneous reorientation (this strategy is chosen by firms if things go wrong or it is necessary to hide income).

The combination of the three types of strategy is practiced by firms operating simultaneously in different industries with very different technological and economic conditions.

Successful strategy implementation requires reliable feedbacks and related tools. One of the tools is tactics, when the forms and methods of action are focused on achieving immediate goals. It is developed at the level of the middle management level, and for a short time. To achieve strategic and tactical goals, the management of the company develops current policies, which include discrimination in hiring, increasing profits due to overpricing, using low prices to drive out competitors, etc.

The role of a benchmark in organizing the goals and objectives of the company is fulfilled by rules that prescribe strictly regulated actions in certain situations, excluding freedom of choice. Rules that are executed in strict sequence are called procedures. The procedures are applied in standard situations, thus saving money.

Thus, strategy, tactics, forecasts, rules, procedures and assumptions are the basis on which the planning process can be carried out.

8. Strategic planning methodology

The strategic planning methodology is based on four levels of knowledge:

General philosophical level - a set of views, knowledge about the phenomena of the surrounding world (philosophy, cultural studies, mathematics; systems theory; organization theory; political science);

General scientific level - which gives an understanding of general approaches, principles, forms of organization, systems (cybernetics; organization theory, systems theory, etc.);

Specific methodology of sciences - forms aggregate knowledge about management in socio-economic systems (macroeconomics; law; sociology; statistics, management, etc.);

Methodology, methodology and technology of strategic planning - the science of strategic planning, which is closest to practical activities, and is designed to implement the achievements of other sciences.

Revealing the methodology of strategic planning, it is necessary to answer the following questions:

a) What is the methodological basis?

b) What are the general methods of strategic planning?

c) What is the systemic model of organization and how to interpret it?

d) What are the principles of strategic planning?

The methodological basis for strategic planning is the systematic and situational approaches. According to systematic approach any organization should be considered as a system consisting of certain interrelated elements that ensure its vital activity, and elements of a larger system, the functioning and development of which is determined by economic laws and patterns characteristic of this type of systems.

For each specific organization, systems of a higher order appear in the form of a certain environment, consisting of economic and government management bodies; market, domestic and foreign competitors, media and infrastructure.

Strategic planning by organizations is based on the following provisions:

First position

Organizations are complex socio-economic systems that are characterized by a number of features:

a) Organizations are created to achieve certain goals;

b) Availability of certain resources and their transformation into material goods;

c) Comparison of the costs of production and use of goods with the results of activities;

d) The complexity of the internal environment of the organization;

e) Multi-criteria management tasks;

f) Greater dynamism of the processes occurring in the system;

g) The need to manage the organization, for which a special governing body is created that has a specific function and organizational structure... A system of approved standards for monitoring their compliance.

Second position

Organizations are open systems that are influenced by numerous environmental factors. Therefore, the effectiveness of an organization, and its strategy, are largely determined by its adaptive capabilities.

Third provision

The strategies of organizations are in many ways unique, therefore, there are no universal solutions for all occasions, there are no and standard kits rules, and the procedure for solving strategic problems.

The planning methodology is based on the following principles:

Reasonable and conscious choice of goals and strategies for the development of the organization;

Constant search for new forms and types of activities to increase the competitiveness of the organization;

Ensuring compliance between the organization and the external environment, which controls and is controlled by the subsystems and elements of the organization;

Individualization of the strategy, where each organization has its own characteristics, due to the existing composition of personnel, material and technical base, culture and other features, therefore, the development of strategies should be carried out taking into account these features;

A clear organizational separation of strategic planning tasks from operational planning tasks.

9. Methods of strategic planning

Allocate two main planning methods - balance sheet and normative.

Balance method Is a set of techniques, methods of identifying and ensuring proportions and relationships through the development of interrelated balances. This method is designed to link the volume and structure of social needs with material, labor and financial resources and coordinate all sections and indicators of the plan, both economic and social development... The application of this method makes it possible to identify and link the natural-material and value proportions in the development of the economy.

The planned balances developed in the process can be classified according to the following criteria:

a) based on the planning stage (forecast, planned and reporting balances)

b) by the period of validity (current, prospective)

c) by appointment (material, labor, financial)

Normative method based on the definition and application of norms and standards. The norms and standards for a certain set of indicators are interrelated. The norm is a scientifically based measure necessary costs resources for the manufacture of a unit of product of a given quality. The standard is a scientifically grounded ratio in proportions, the simplest quantitative expression of socio-economic relations, which covers two quantities: the consumption of materials per unit of production and consumed products per capita. All standards used in planning must be progressive and realistic, take into account the achievements of scientific and technological progress, organizational, technological and socio-economic limitations of a particular period.

The whole set of norms and standards can be divided into groups:

a) norms and standards reflecting the consumption of services by the population

b) economic standards

c) norms and standards used in technical and economic calculations.

All technical, economic and balance sheet calculations are based on norms and standards. An indispensable condition for the progressiveness of the norms is their revision, in connection with the changing conditions of production.

This method is used in the development of all plans for socio-economic development. Therefore, before developing a plan, for each of its sections, its own regulatory framework should be formulated.

10. Conclusion

All over the world it is customary to start a business with strategic planning. Strategic planning is also currently used in Russia, but its essence boils down to one thing: "our strategy and everything connected with it should be profitable." But it’s not clear where the consumer and the environment go. Such questions are not often asked in Russia.

Reducing strategy to profit is not strategic planning, as it should be - it is simply a statement of the fact that the whole world is already considered a secondary strategy.

Leaders must understand that making a profit is like building a house once and not renovating it. Here it is and everything, also with a profit, here it is, and what will happen next, where to go is no longer important, maybe it will be taken out. When starting a business, you always need to see what to strive for, what goals you can achieve. All firms in the West have been operating on this principle for a long time and bring their knowledge on this topic to Russia, trying to teach our leaders to carry out strategic planning.

All this is required by every investment firm, and she knows where to invest money so that it is profitable. Therefore, the top echelon of the enterprise should always carry out strategic planning of its activities.

11. List of used literature

1. Petrov A.N. Strategic planning of enterprise development: textbook.-SPb .: Publishing house SPbUEF, 1993

2. Gusev Yu.V. Enterprise Development Strategy .- SPb .: Publishing house SPbUEF, 1992.

3. Ansoff I. Strategic management.-M .: Economics, 1989

4. King U., Klilaved D. Strategic planning and economic

politics. M., 1988

5. Karloff B. Business strategy: concept, content, symbols M., 1991

6. USA: state and market / A. Parkansky, S. Dubinin et al. M., 1991

Systems analysis methods in strategic planning. Strategic planning methods in the enterprise

annotation scientific article on economics and business, the author of the scientific work - Gaiduk Vladimir Ivanovich, Takakho Eldar Eristemovich

Related Topics scientific works on economics and business, the author of the scientific work is Vladimir I. Gaiduk, Eldar Eristemovich Takakho

METHODS AND TOOLS OF STRATEGY PLANNING

1. Introduction