On the growth of technological exports in last years the Russian authorities say a lot. And there are indeed small shifts. But while we are moving at a snail's pace, other countries are rapidly overtaking us every year. How big is the gap now?
What are high-tech exports?
Exporting raw materials in the international arena is a low-paid and ineffective occupation. Another thing is machines, devices, electrical equipment, computers and other high-tech goods. Their production not only moves the economy and science of the country, but also allows the state to have weight in the international arena. That is why in strategies and government documents In most countries of the world, building up just this type of export is one of the primary tasks.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has developed a four-tier classification of exports depending on the level of implementation scientific methods and the cost of R&D in their production. The export of such goods is divided into four categories: high-tech, that is, it is the most knowledge-intensive export, medium-high, medium-low, and low-tech.
The most knowledge-intensive group includes not so many goods. The fact is that the world level of development of science and technology is growing, and the science intensity of products is assessed more and more rigorously every year.
High-tech exports include aviation, computers, pharmaceuticals, certain types of chemicals, electronics, certain types weapons and other goods, in the production of which scientific developments are introduced.
However, many countries deviate significantly from international classification... And the logic is quite clear: the level of technological development of countries is different, as well as the benchmarks for the development of the economy, and its own classification allows us to make “beautiful” statistics. In Russia, this is a rather extensive list of TNVED codes, which are contained in the order of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of 03/10/2017 No. 672 - these are mainly machines and equipment. It happens that non-resource exports are completely equated with high-tech exports, which, among other things, include low-value products or products with an extremely simple production process.
Different approaches lead to the fact that the export volumes of high-tech goods, as well as their share relative to the rest of the export, differ tenfold.
How much are high-tech exports growing?
The World Bank regularly calculates how much the countries of the world are making by exporting high-tech goods. According to the OECD methodology, the global volume of high-tech exports becomes more and more over time: on average, the annual growth is 3-4%. It peaked in 2014, when it was $ 2.1 trillion. Later, a drop in world oil prices and a slowdown in economic growth in many countries slightly diminished the ardor of manufacturers, and the volume of exports of high-tech products in the world fell to $ 1.95 trillion. The World Bank has yet to compute data for the full year of 2017, but the numbers are likely to be strong on the back of a global economic recovery.
China plays the largest role in this market. In 2016, it accounted for a quarter of all high-tech supplies, and their value was estimated at $ 496 billion. Compared to 2000, China's exports in monetary terms increased 12 times. High-tech exports account for 24% of the total volume of goods that the Chinese supply abroad, while the share in 2000 was half as much - only 11%.
The second and third places are occupied by Germany and the United States: in 2016, these countries together accounted for 18% of all world exports of high-tech goods. In monetary terms, the volume of exports amounted to more than $ 169.6 billion and $ 153.1 billion, respectively. At the same time, deliveries from Germany increased 2.22 times from 2000 to 2016, while supplies from the United States decreased by 22%.
However, the Americans are not bad at all - it's just that the country is undergoing a process of de-industrialization, industrial production is moving to other countries, and exports are increasingly shifting from goods to services. A similar situation occurs with many European states. And instead of them, Asian countries are becoming leaders in high-tech exports. In 2016, Singapore took fourth place with a share with a supply volume of $ 126.3 billion.Since 2000, its exports have grown by 71%. The fifth place was taken by South Korea, which increased supplies by 2.2 times.
There are many countries in the world whose science-intensive exports from 2000 to 2016 not only increased, but increased many times over. Exports from the Czech Republic, Romania, Vietnam increased 9 times, from India - 6 times, from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait - 52 times, from Nigeria - 22 times, from the United Arab Emirates - 86 times. The countries of Africa and the Caribbean showed a multiple growth, supplies from which in the distant 2000 were almost not carried out.
How many high-tech products does Russia sell?
Despite the fact that there are many programs to support high-tech exports in Russia and this is one of the priority tasks of the state, we are still far from the growth that other countries demonstrate. According to the World Bank, our supplies in 2016 dropped slightly and amounted to $ 6.6 billion. At the same time, they peaked in 2015, when they amounted to $ 9.8 billion. Our exports are growing by more than 5% on average per year. This is slightly faster than the global average, but slower than China with an average growth of 11% or, for example, Vietnam with an increase of over 37%, or even Turkey with an increase of over 7% per year.
The share of high-tech products in relation to all our exports is also very small. In the 2000s, it was even higher than it is now. The greatest value was achieved in 2002, when the export of high-tech goods accounted for 4.28% of all Russian exports. Then the share began to decline every year - almost synchronously with the rise in oil prices, which occupied an ever larger share in supplies. The turning point began only after 2011, when the state program was developed, and many brands began to place production in the Russian Federation. In 2016, the share of high-tech exports remained low at just 2.35%. Of course, it cannot be denied that in recent years there has been an increase in non-primary exports in our supplies: machine tools, metal and chemical products, food products. However, most of them refer only to low- or medium-tech products according to the OECD methodology, and therefore are not included in high-tech supplies.
As for the share that we occupy in the world, it is catastrophically small. Russian supplies account for only 0.3% of the total global high-tech exports. At the same time, in different years, the maximum we managed to achieve was only 0.5%. Among other suppliers, we are in 30th place, and in 18 years, our position has not improved - in 2000 we were in 29th place. In terms of export volume in monetary terms, we are now at the level of countries such as Brazil, Slovakia, Denmark, Romania and Australia. At the same time, we skipped ahead of the Czech Republic, India, Poland, Israel and Slovakia: in 2016 they are higher than Russia in the ranking, although in the distant 2000 they were behind. However, the lack of dynamics does not prevent us from making ambitious plans for the future. By 2020, technological exports are planned to increase 3.5 times.
World high-tech exports 1990-2013
The World Bank in the statistical publication "World Development Indicators" regularly publishes data on the value and share in exports of the manufacturing industry, including in high-tech exports, including the following products: aerospace equipment, calculating equipment, pharmaceutical products, scientific instruments and electric cars.
Below are the World Bank (WB) data on world high-tech exports (WTE) in US dollars from 1990 to 2013 for the TOP-50 countries with the largest WTE in 2013. 1990 - the beginning statistical series in most countries; 1996 - the beginning of statistical series for Russia; 2013 is the last year for which WB statistics exist.
According to the World Bank, world high-tech exports in 1990-2013 looked like this:
Table 1 - the cost of high-tech exports, billion $ (TOP-50) 1990-2013.
Empty cells - no data.
The two undisputed leaders of the world high-tech trade of the 90s - the United States and Japan - by 2009 surrendered their positions to China and Germany. Germany ranked second after China due to a sharp drop in US WTE.
The greatest successes (an increase of more than 5000%) during the study period are observed in foreign trade Vietnam, Lithuania, China, Costa Rica, Hungary, Czech Republic. Ahead of the logical question "what kind of Vietnam?" - in the structure of Vietnam's exports in 2014, $ 24 billion falls on telephones and spare parts for them. By the way, this is the largest Vietnamese export item. Based on the dynamics of exports (see table 1), the telephone was invented in Vietnam in 2010.
The least growth (less than 200%) was in the USA and Japan. The size of the WTE in these countries has remained virtually unchanged since 1990.
The WTE of Great Britain is falling like a fast jack - this is the only state that has shown a fall to the level of 1990 (in 2013 - 70%).
Table 2 - dynamics of changes in high-tech exports,% (TOP-50) 1990-2013.
Empty cells - no data.
It is worth saying a few words about the Russian VTE. According to the Russian classification, high-tech goods worth $ 52.63 billion were exported in 2013, and according to the World Bank - only $ 8.656 billion (Table 1). You can familiarize yourself with the list of high-tech products under the TN VED. This list is much more diverse than the World Bank list. In particular, according to the TN VED, high-tech goods are:
Bearings, pumps, engines, turbines, agricultural machinery, tractors, machine tools, baby carriages, tires. They are classified as Medium-skill and technology-intensive manufactures according to UNCTAD. Those. "Medium-tech" export;
Motorcycles, seamless pipes, rolled metal more than 600 mm wide or coated, metal containers, trailers and semi-trailers, railway locomotives, ships (except for military). UNCTAD defines these goods in "Low-skill and technology-intensive manufactures", i.e. Low-tech exports;
Shoes, leather, plywood, paper (including newsprint), cotton fabrics, furniture, clothing, which UNCTAD considers "Labor-intensive and resource-intensive manufactures". Or labor-intensive and resource-intensive goods.
Weapons according to the UNCTAD classification are considered a high-tech product (code 891 Arms & ammunition).
Based on the foregoing, the data of domestic statistics on the Russian WTE are fundamentally at odds with the information of the WB and are incomparable.
1The article examines the main trends in the development of knowledge-intensive industries in the world. On the basis of a survey analysis of the high-tech goods market, an analysis of Russian and world high-tech exports is carried out. It was determined that the leading centers of high technologies are the USA, Japan and Western Europe, which the present stage development of knowledge-intensive and high-tech industries have been recognized as the "three pillars" of the modern world economy. It was revealed that the countries of Southeast Asia and China in the last decade have been actively increasing their potential in the world market high tech, however, the lag of Russia in this area from the leading foreign countries is significant and continues to grow. With the aim of a deeper understanding of this trend, technological and non-technological innovations carried out by different countries are considered and analyzed. On the basis of statistical indicators, the position of the Russian Federation in the world markets of high-tech (science-intensive) products is presented, as well as an analysis of the structure of Russian and world exports. Revealed that currently the potential Russian exports knowledge-intensive and high-tech industries is significant, but not fully implemented. Russia already today creates and has a number of promising developments in high-tech sectors.
high-tech and knowledge-intensive industry
industry
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2. Long-term forecast of the scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation (until 2025). - URL: http://www.protown.ru/information/doc/4295.html.
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5. Platonova E.I. Analysis of high-tech export indicators in Russia and abroad. - URL: http://www.rusnauka.com/12_KPSN_2012/Economics.htm.
6. Russian innovation index / ed. L.M. Hochberg. - M .: National Research University " graduate School Economics ", 2011. - P. 80.
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8. Strategy innovative development Of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020. Approved by the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated 08.12.2011 No. 2227-r.
9. Economic statistics on high-tech industries and Knowledge Intensive Services. Eurostat. - URL: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu.
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Currently, the influence of high-tech industries on the economic development of individual countries and regions of the world is steadily growing. Among the countries with the most significant scientific, technical and technological potential, the USA, Japan, Germany, Great Britain and France should be noted. Asian countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong from time to time occupy leading positions in certain areas. The industries under consideration are characterized by a high growth rate; in addition, their feature is a synergistic effect on the development of other industries of a particular country, both related and not tied to high-tech production.
The trend of the colossal technological lag of the Russian Federation behind the leading countries is caused by the strong dependence of the economy on the extractive and processing industries. In terms of its development, the domestic economy is inferior to the countries of Western Europe, the United States, many states of Asia and Latin America. Domestic high-tech exports account for only 1.2% of China's exports, 3.7% of US exports, 4.3% of Japan's exports. According to the World Bank, the volume of exports of high-tech products in Russia is 6 times lower than that of Thailand, and 10 times lower than that of Switzerland. At the same time, there is a steady lag in the growth rates of finished high-tech products. Due to the resource dependence of the Russian economy, there is an insufficient investment of innovative developments that can significantly reduce this gap. V modern conditions Russian business, in our opinion, one of the most acute problems invariably remains the problem of the lack of independent development without borrowing technological innovations from the West.
Russian products in almost all promising areas (for example, such as office and computer technology, electronics, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals) is uncompetitive against the background of similar goods produced in China, the USA, Germany and Japan. In addition, Russia lags behind in some high-tech areas (in the export of computer and office equipment, electronics and telecommunications equipment, pharmaceuticals, electrical machines) and behind the former Soviet republics and socialist countries - Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and the Czech Republic.
In the process of redistribution of forces in the field of high-tech industries in world markets, a number of leadership groupings have formed. For example, the countries of Southeast Asia (China, Singapore, South Korea) occupy a leading position in the export of consumer products in the field of computer and telecommunications technology, as well as electronics. While in the field of mechanical engineering, weapons and chemistry, such countries as the USA, Germany and China hold the lead. Germany Switzerland, Belgium and other European countries have succeeded in exporting biotechnology and pharmaceutical products. Russia, on the other hand, with the current volume of high-tech exports, can hardly keep its positions in the group of countries of the "second echelon".
Russian enterprises in the field of high-tech products are unable to meet domestic demand and, as a result, cannot break through to overseas markets... In this situation, the following areas are an exception: products of heavy engineering, non-electric machines, aerospace, which are still not able to compete with the sectors mass production by market scale.
In the export of industrial goods, the share of high-tech products has been decreasing in recent years and is only about 2%. The total share of high-tech goods in the export of the countries of Southeast Asia is ten times greater and is growing rapidly. It is these countries that seriously compete not only with Russia, but also with many large world exporters. As a result, their high-tech exports are replaced by low-tech, mainly raw materials.
Russia's refusal from the strategy of industrial universalization over the years of reforms and the search for its own sales markets can be attributed to a positive trend. Most likely, nanomaterials can become promising markets for our country, light civil Aviation, thin chemical technology, cheap military technology, nuclear reactors on fast neurons, etc. Today in Russia, non-electronic machines, as well as equipment for hydroelectric and nuclear power plants, are among the most competitive export destinations for high-tech industries. characteristic feature which is a high share of Russian exports of this commodity group in the world, as well as the highest stability of this share and the largest trade balance. Among the promising export directions for Russia, we consider it possible to single out also aerospace equipment and chemical products and materials.
the Russian Federation despite significant investments in education, science and innovation carried out in recent years, unfortunately, at the present stage economic development has not been able to reduce the significant gap with the world leaders in the main indicators that determine the level of scientific and technological development. Russia on the world market high technology products owns only about 0.3% - 0.5%, while the USA - 36%, Japan - 30%, Germany - 17%.
According to the data provided by the Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge of the Higher School of Economics, the share of innovation-active enterprises in the domestic industry is 9.6% in 2011, which is several times less than in developed countries, and the results of the innovation process are significantly ineffective (Fig. 1) ...
In confirmation, let us compare the share of high-tech products in the export of our country with similar indicators of leading countries. The analysis showed that while for China this figure is 22.4%, South Korea - 38.4%, Hungary - 25.2%, the share of science-intensive and high-tech products in the Russian Federation's exports fluctuates at the level of only 4%. 5 % .
According to studies under the BEEPS program of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank, only a third of Russian enterprises are introducing new technologies. From which we can conclude that the problem of lack of proprietary technological solutions is still unresolved.
Rice. 1. The share of technological and non-technological innovations carried out by different countries in 2011,%
The difficult situation in the scientific and technical sphere remains unchanged. A striking example is the extremely low level use of scientific research and developments in organizing the production of science-intensive products at Russian enterprises, despite the fact that most of them find their demand among foreign consumers. The main obstacle for the Russian economy in effective competition not only in knowledge-intensive and high-tech industries, but also in industries with the highest level of added value, is the lack of effective links between science and production.
Moreover, in Russia, more than 71% of all organizations carrying out research and development are state-owned, most of which are federal property.
In the world markets for high-tech (science-intensive) products, Russia's position over the past decade reached its maximum level in 2003, accounting for 0.45% of world exports in these markets. But by 2009 this share had almost halved, but by 2012 the share of Russian exports had grown to 0.35%. Nevertheless, it is noticeably smaller specific gravity countries such as Germany (7.6%), USA (13.5%), China (16.3%), etc.
The export of high-tech products in Russia is heterogeneous in terms of the structure of commodity groups. According to the data provided The Statistical Office Of the European Communities (Eurostat), on the basis of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC), the Russian Federation has taken the most solid and stable position in the niche of non-electric machines (primarily equipment for nuclear reactors). 2000 to 2012 in world exports of these goods, the share of Russia increased from 1.76 to 2.26%, respectively, which corresponds to the 11th place in the world (being at the level of such countries as China, Belgium, Sweden and the Netherlands) (Fig. 2).
In the export of office and computer equipment, there is a significant gap, both in terms of volumes and growth rates of this indicator, between China and other exporting countries, which have not yet been able to compare with the latter. China's share in exports over ten years has increased more than 6.5 times and amounted to about 34%, while such countries as the USA, Singapore, the Republic of Korea, Great Britain and Ireland have reduced their positions, while Mexico and Germany. Despite the increase in the share of the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden and Russia in the world export of office and computer equipment, the contribution of these countries does not reach even one percent, and for Russia - only 0.06%.
Currently, in the world, the number of exporting countries focused on the full development of the high-tech segment of the global market (for example, Germany and the United States) is very small. In most cases, the most salient feature national economies there is a clear specialization in one or two areas.
Rice. 2. Dynamics of Russia's share in the global export of high-tech products by product group (%). (Calculated according to UN COMTRADE data)
In recent years, there has been a significant decrease in the share of exports of Russian high-tech products in GDP, which at the end of 2012 amounted to only 5%. Today energy carriers account for 70-80% of the country's exports.
The structure of exported high-tech products in 2012 was noticeably shifted towards aerospace machinery and equipment (34.24% of national science-intensive exports), non-electronic machines (21.97%) and chemical products (8.78%). The total share of these three product groups provides 65% of science-intensive exports from Russia, while the share of these segments in the world does not exceed 20% (Fig. 3).
In Russian exports, the share of science-intensive goods belonging to the category of mass end-user markets (in total - 65% of world markets) is only 18.5% (office and computer equipment, telecommunications and electronics, pharmaceuticals).
Rice. 3. The structure of Russian and world exports of high-tech products
Thus, the range of activities of Russian exporting enterprises is concentrated within narrow specific areas of high-tech products, such as power equipment, aerospace technology, and instrument making. At the same time, the competitiveness of such enterprises is several times lower in product groups designed for the mass end consumer (for example, electronic components, computer and telecommunications equipment, pharmaceutical products).
Among the consumers of exported high-tech and science-intensive products in 2012, the dominant positions are occupied by India, Ukraine, China and Germany. India is the leader in terms of purchases of domestic products such as aerospace equipment, office and computer equipment, electronic components and telecommunications equipment, measuring instruments, medical and scientific equipment. Ukraine, China and Kazakhstan are the most important importing countries in the same segments, as well as in the segment of non-electric machines. In the geographical structure of exports of chemical products, the countries of the European Union, such as the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, should be distinguished.
According to preliminary estimates of experts, by 2030 the volume of world markets for high-tech products should amount to about 10-12 trillion US dollars.
In general, thanks to the dynamic growth of the world market for science-intensive and high-tech goods and services, as well as a new technological wave, new opportunities for a technological breakthrough are opening up for Russia.
According to the forecast of scientific and technological development, the main condition for expanding Russia's share in the world market of science-intensive and high technologies is to bring and maintain the growth rate of Russian exports of these products at the level of 15-20% per year, by 2020 it is necessary to reach a level of 1% of the world market , and by 2030, respectively, increase to 2.5%.
The place that Russia occupies in the international division of labor is directly influenced by the innovative potential of our country, which is at a very low level. This is due to the fact that in the structure of exports, the dominant position is occupied by the supply of products from the fuel and energy and raw materials industries, while the share of exports of products focused on high technologies and innovations does not exceed five percent.
Russia's significant lag in the export of machinery and equipment, science-intensive products and other products with a high share of added value is a consequence of the low innovation potential. With the exception of such markets as the markets for energy, raw materials and materials, there are an extremely small number of positions where the importance of Russia as an exporter is quite high. It is also worth noting the goods and technologies of the defense and related industries. Russia traditionally satisfies about 15% of the world's conventional arms needs, ranking second after the United States in the world in this market. In addition, our country traditionally maintains a strong position in the market for the supply of complex equipment and the construction of energy facilities abroad.
In the world export of high-tech (science-intensive) products, Russian goods are not a significant component, i.e. neither aerospace equipment and services, nor machinery and equipment are included in the prevailing elements of the trade balance. The scientific and technological base of Russia is not capable of supporting the country's economy necessary technologies... The lack of proprietary technologies experienced by the Russian economy is confirmed by a comparison of created and used technologies.
Thus, world experience shows that the most effective export structure is the one where the main share in the export structure belongs to the products of manufacturing, especially high-tech and science-intensive, and not raw materials.
It is obvious that in Russia the only alternative to the development of high-tech and high-tech industries is to rely on technologies and companies that have learned how to turn them into sustainable development and create jobs in the economy of a new technological order.
To save competitive positions on the world markets for high-tech (science-intensive) products, Russia should strive not only to achieve a fixed level of share in the global export of these goods, but also to find strategic partners. Achievement of these goals will allow gaining access to new markets and technologies, and, in addition, restraining the attack on the strategic markets of not only partner countries, but also competing countries.
Reviewers:
Davtyan M.A., Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of "Enterprise Economics and Entrepreneurship", Dean Faculty of Economics, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow;
Karagod VS, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of Accounting and Audit and Statistics, Faculty of Economics, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow.
The work was received on October 17, 2014.
Bibliographic reference
Dolgova M.V. MODERN TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC AND HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIES // Basic research... - 2014. - No. 11-4. - S. 852-857;URL: http://fundamental-research.ru/ru/article/view?id=35645 (date accessed: 03/20/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the "Academy of Natural Sciences"
For many decades, the volume of Russian exports has been characterized by the predominance of raw materials (oil, gas, metals, etc.). This situation reduces the stability of the country's economy, makes it dependent on world energy prices.
The increase in non-resource exports is designated by the President of the Russian Federation in the "May Decrees" of 2018 as the most important national goal and strategic direction in the development of the country's economy in the near future.
As the world practice confirms, the most profitable item in the export volumes of the leading countries of the world is the export of high-tech products and science-intensive technologies.
The sector of high-tech products is growing rapidly, as it is an element of a new digital industry - the knowledge economy, widely attracts qualified personnel, creates high added value and serves as a driver of innovative development. The market for high-tech products is characterized by a high level of competition. An attempt to answer the questions whether Russia has any prospects for taking a stable position in this market and ensuring an increase in the export of high-tech technologies was given in the national report "High-tech business in the regions of Russia", prepared by
scientists and experts of the Russian Academy of National Economy and public service under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA), the Gaidar Institute and the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia (AIRR).
When assessing high-tech exports in the country, it included goods produced using high-tech technologies. These are, in particular, pharmaceutical products, power equipment, nuclear reactors, fuel elements for nuclear power plants (fuel rods), jet and turbojet engines, gas turbines, defense industry products. The report notes that Russia is not among the leaders in the export of high-tech products. In 2016, it was ranked 30th, providing 0.34% of global high-tech goods exports. However, the dynamics of this indicator in recent years has a positive trend. So, in 2006, the country's share in world exports of high-tech products was only 0.11%, and in 2017, the total export of high-tech products amounted to $ 28 billion and showed a fairly high increase - 24% to the level of 2015.
An assessment of the regional structure of high-tech exports showed that about 67% of its volume is produced by large machine-building centers with a developed military-industrial complex. The top 10 leading regions include Ryazan, Kostroma, Tver, Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ulyanovsk, Bryansk, Vladimir regions, Republic of Mordovia, Sevastopol.
According to Lyudmila Pronyaeva, professor at the Central Russian Institute of Management, a branch of the RANEPA, the export potential of high-tech products is available in any region of the country. For this, regional policy should focus on realizing opportunities digital economy, stimulating entrepreneurial initiative, nurturing technology leaders, and building a well-functioning export support infrastructure. This position is confirmed by the practice of leading regions in the export of science-intensive products. Greatest success achieved in this matter where small business and large companies, educational and scientific organizations and representatives of regional administrations.
An important criterion for the competitiveness of the national industry is the real demand for its products for domestic and foreign markets where the activity of foreign companies is constantly increasing different countries the world. It determines the parameters of export and geographic specialization of import-export, trade balance.
The volume of Russian exports of high-tech products in 2006 amounted to 9.5 billion US dollars, having increased in nominal size by 1.2 times compared to the previous year and 2.2 times compared to 1996 (Table 4). In terms of the absolute volume of exports of high-tech products, Russia is at the level of countries such as India, Portugal and Slovakia, 14 times behind Korea, and 42 times behind China and the United States. In general, the share of Russia in world exports of high-tech products in 1996-2006. practically did not change, remaining at the level of about 0.2-0.3%.
Table 4 - The absolute volume of exports of high-tech products and the share in its global volume: leading countries and Russia, 2006
The insignificant share of high-tech exports in its total volume demonstrates the raw material orientation of the Russian economy and the low competitiveness of domestic enterprises in the world market of high-tech products. If in 1998 it was 3.4%, then by 2007 this share decreased to 1.6%. In comparison with developed industrial countries, this value does not reach the level of Poland and the Baltic countries and is tens of times less than the level of industrialized countries - Ireland (29%), China (28.2), USA (26.1), etc.
A more detailed idea of Russia's position in the world market for high-tech products can be obtained from data on specific product groups (Table 5).
Table 5 - Russia's share in the global export of high-tech products: 2006 (percent)
Source: calculated by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge of the State University - Higher School of Economics according to UN COMTRADE
Russia has the largest weight in world exports in the groups of chemical products and materials (1.9%) of non-electric machines (0.9%) and aerospace technology (0.6%). The smallest participation of Russia in the world export of high-tech products is observed in such groups as electronics and telecommunications equipment (0.1%), pharmaceuticals and pharmaceuticals (0.1%) and computer and office equipment (0.02%).
The share of Russia is also small in the world imports of high-tech goods. In 2006, it was two times lower than the share of Mexico and roughly corresponded to the share of India. China imports ten times more high-tech products, and the United States 15 times. If for the export of goods of this category Russia takes 33rd place, then for imports - 20th place. Thus, in Russia, in addition to the poorly developed export direction of high-tech production, there is also a relatively low demand of the domestic economy for high-tech imported products.
The foreign trade balance of Russia in the field of high-tech products is passive, and for the period 1998-2005. its balance almost halved - from 54.6% to 28% (Table 6).
Table 6 - Volumes of Russian exports and imports by selected high-tech commodity groups: 2006
| Export, mln USD | Imports, mln USD | Balance,% | |
| High-tech products | 9461.92 | 33584.36 | 28.17% |
| Including: | |||
| Non-electric machines | 2577.38 | 2040.36 | 126.32% |
| Chemical products and materials | 2546.43 | 2280.82 | 111.65% |
| Air and space aircraft | 1001.57 | 1461.95 | 68.51% |
| Measuring instruments and optics | 759.15 | 2851.08 | 26.63% |
| Electric cars | 1458.02 | 7230.76 | 20.16% |
| Electronics and telecommunications equipment | 752.06 | 8618.92 | 8.73% |
| Computer and office equipment | 127.09 | 2774.97 | 4.58% |
| Pharmaceutical and medicinal products | 240.21 | 6325.5 | 3.80% |
Source: calculated by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge of the State University - Higher School of Economics according to UN COMTRADE
Nevertheless, in two product groups it remains positive: non-electric machines (126%) and chemical products and materials (112%). In other categories, export volumes are noticeably less than import volumes. This imbalance is especially noticeable in the groups of computer, electronic and pharmaceutical products, and it continues to grow. Thus, the balance of electronics and telecommunications equipment in 2006 amounted to 8.7% against 43.5% in 1996. For pharmaceuticals and pharmaceuticals, the balance decreased from 11.6% to 3.8%, and for computer and office equipment - from 24.6% to 4.6% ... Thus, in the segment of high-tech consumer goods in Russia, the already significant import dependence is growing from year to year. The situation with the import of drugs deserves special attention.
Over a long period of history, Soviet industrial complex supported military specialization, which could not but affect the structure of the production of high-tech goods. Here, by a wide margin, the products of the chemical industry and heavy mechanical engineering dominate - non-electric machines (turbines, reactors) and aircraft. Fine technologies - electronics, computers, pharmaceuticals - focused on mass production, together account for only 11.8% of high-tech exports (Table 7). For comparison, in 1998 the total weight of these three groups exceeded 15%.
In terms of the specialization of high-tech products, Russia differs from other countries, in which, on average, such groups as electric machines (23.5%), chemistry and materials (23.5%), electronics and telecommunications equipment (13.8%), and computer and office equipment (12.9%) have the greatest weight. %). As already noted, Russian exports are dominated by non-electric machines (27.2%), chemicals and materials (26.9%).
Table 7 - Structure of exports of high-tech products in Russia: 2006 (percent)
Source: calculated by the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge of the State University - Higher School of Economics according to UN COMTRADE
Export specialization indices (the ratio of the weight of a commodity group in national exports to the weight of the same group in world exports) make it possible to assess the structure of exports of high-tech goods more accurately. In the last decade, non-electric machines (mainly power plants), the specialization index of which exceeds 4 units, have been distinguished in the export of domestic high-tech products. For the export of pharmaceuticals and medicines (0.3), electronics and communication equipment (0.6) and, especially, computer and office equipment (0.1), Russian enterprises clearly do not stand up to competition in the global market. For these three items, since 1996 (0.7, 0.9 and 0.2, respectively), the indicators have even declined. Export specialization aircraft shows an almost twofold increase in the index. The index of specialization for non-electric machines also increased.
These simple calculations confirm the generally low level of competitiveness of domestic high-tech industries. In almost all promising areas (pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, electronics, computer and office equipment), Russian products are uncompetitive compared to Chinese, American, German and Japanese. In some high-tech areas, Russia also lags significantly behind the former republics of the USSR and socialist countries - Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic (for example, in the export of computer and office equipment, electronics and telecommunications equipment, pharmaceuticals, electrical machines).
As a result of the redistribution of forces in world markets, several leadership groups have emerged in the areas of high-tech production. China, Singapore, South Korea and other countries of Southeast Asia have taken leading positions in the export of mass products, mainly in the field of electronics, computer and telecommunications equipment. In the field of heavy engineering, weapons and chemistry, the USA, France and Germany are the leaders. Belgium, Switzerland, Germany and other European countries have succeeded in exporting pharmaceutical and biotechnology products. As a result, in high-tech exports, Russia is not only unable to claim leadership, but it can hardly hold its positions in the group of countries of the "second echelon" (with the exception, perhaps, of the direction related to aircraft).
In the field of high-tech products of mass demand, Russian enterprises not only cannot break through to foreign markets, but are also unable to fully satisfy domestic demand. The exceptions are such areas as non-electric machines, heavy engineering products, "aerospace", which, nevertheless, cannot be compared in terms of the scale of markets with the sectors of mass production. The total share of high-tech products in the export of industrial civilian goods in Russia is about 2%, and it has been steadily decreasing in recent years. The countries of Southeast Asia, in whose exports the weight of high-tech goods is dozens of times greater and, moreover, is growing rapidly, are seriously competing not only with Russia, but also with many large world exporters, as a result, replacing their high-tech exports with low-tech, mainly raw materials. ...
In an open economy, domestic goods that are not competitive in foreign markets quickly lose their competitiveness in domestic markets as well, being crowded out by imports. In these conditions, entire industries begin to experience a shortage of financial resources, which sooner or later leads to their irreversible technological degradation and complete disappearance.
A positive trend can be attributed to the fact that over the years of reforms, Russia has moved away from the strategy of industrial universalization and is in search of its own sales markets. This is also evidenced by a comparison of the Russian and world export specialization indices. It is quite likely that fine chemical technologies, nanomaterials, light civil aviation, fast-neutron reactors, cheap military technologies, etc. can become promising markets for our country. Currently, non-electric machines, in particular , equipment for nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants. This group of goods is characterized not only by a high share of Russian exports in the world, but also by the highest stability of this share and the largest trade balance. Other promising export destinations for Russia include chemical products and materials, as well as aerospace technology.
