An effective solution is always rational. Rational problem solving

As we said at the end of the last lesson, making a decision is only half the battle. The second half is to assess how correct, correct and effective it was. This is important for the reason that the assessment allows you to understand how competent the actions taken were, whether they will lead to success in the future, and in general, whether they are worth counting on. Evaluation of the decisions made is a kind of litmus test that checks them for effectiveness. However, it is very important to understand that ordinary decisions in life and management decisions are evaluated according to different algorithms.

Evaluating everyday decisions

To begin with, let's repeat a little: if you are faced with the need to make some difficult decision, the consequences of which bother you, first of all, you should think over all the pros and cons several times, assess the situation and possible options her permission. making a decision is the first step towards its effectiveness.

End product analysis the decision there will always be a result. On the basis of it, it will be possible to judge whether the goal was achieved, what resources were used to achieve it, how much effort and time was spent, what happened in the end, and whether the game was worth the candle.

So, if the decision made is related to any quantifiable values, its effectiveness is quite amenable to calculation in relative or absolute units. For example, if you decide, hoping to reach a new level of income, you can evaluate the effectiveness of your solution after a month or half a year. If you decide to run new ad your product, you can understand how effective this solution was by establishing an increase in customers, an increase in the percentage of sales and net profit.

In the case when a solution is associated with uncountable quantities, its assessment is different. You need to understand whether you have achieved the initially set result. For example, when you set yourself the task of increasing your personal productivity and getting more done, you have decided. It will be possible to sum up the results in a week by ticking the boxes next to the completed tasks in your list.

Decisions made in any other area of life are assessed in a similar way. The scheme is extremely simple: the goal is either achieved or not. If it is achieved, you did everything right, if not, something needs to be changed. In addition, the assessment of efficiency can be carried out with an eye to the resources expended: the less effort, time, money and other means you spent on the implementation of your decision, the more effective it is. It's simple.

As we can see, in ordinary everyday life, it is quite easy to analyze the decisions made. But there is another category of decisions - managerial ones, and it is much more difficult to analyze them. Whole books and manuals are written on this topic, and, unfortunately, it will not work to consider all the details in one lesson. However, it is quite possible to point out the basics of this process. This is what we will do.

Fundamentals of Management Decision Evaluation

Acceptance of any management decision can be called an intermediate stage between a management decision and management influence... This, in turn, suggests that the effectiveness of such a solution is manifested in the aggregate of the effectiveness of its development and implementation.

In total, there are more than six dozen various private indicators of the organization's performance. These include the turnover of working capital, profitability, return on investment, the ratio of the growth rate of labor productivity to the average wages etc.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of management decisions involves the use of the concept of aggregate economic effect since the results obtained necessarily include the labor contribution of people.

It should also be said that it is very important for organizations to meet customer requirements and at the same time improve their economic performance. Based on this, when assessing the effectiveness of decisions, it becomes necessary to take into account two aspects of performance - social and economic.

The algorithm for assessing the effectiveness of management decisions can be illustrated by taking a trade organization as an example. So, in order to understand whether the decision was effective or not, it is necessary to keep separate records of income and expenses with regard to different product groups. Considering that in practice it is very difficult to do this, the use of so-called specific qualitative indicators is widespread in the analysis process. Here these are the profit per 1 million rubles of turnover and distribution costs per 1 million of commodity stocks.

The effectiveness of managerial decisions in trade organizations is expressed in aggregate in quantitative form - it is an increase in the volume of trade, an increase in the rate of product turnover and a decrease in the amount of commodity reserves.

If you need to understand the final financial and economic result of the implementation of management decisions, you should establish how much the income of a particular organization increases and how much its expenses are reduced.

You can determine the economic efficiency of a decision that influenced the growth of turnover and an increase in profits using the formula:

Ef P * T P * (Tf - Tpl), where:

Ef - indicator economic efficiency
P - profit indicator based on 1 million rubles of turnover
T is an indicator of an increase in the volume of trade
Tf is an indicator of the actual turnover observed after the implementation of the management decision
Tpl is an indicator of the planned turnover (or turnover for a comparable period before the implementation of the management decision)

In this example, economic efficiency reflects a decrease in the indicators of distribution costs (commercial costs, selling costs) that fall on the remainder of the goods. Hence the increase in profit indicators. Efficiency is determined here by the formula:

Eph = IO * C IO * (Z2 - Z1), where:

Ef is an indicator of the economic efficiency of a specific management decision
IO - an indicator of the volume of distribution costs based on 1 million rubles of inventory
З - an indicator of the magnitude of changes (decreases) in inventory
31 - an indicator of the volume of inventories before the implementation of the management decision
32 - an indicator of the volume of inventories after the implementation of the management decision

In our case, the economic efficiency of the management decision was reflected in the increase in the rate of turnover of goods. Its indicator can be calculated using the formula:

Ef Io * About Io (About f - About pl), where:

Ef is an indicator of the economic efficiency of a management decision
Io - an indicator of the simultaneous volume of distribution costs
About - an indicator of an increase in the rate of turnover of goods
About pl - an indicator of the turnover of goods before making a management decision
About f - an indicator of the turnover of goods after making a management decision

In addition to everything, to analyze the effectiveness of management decisions, it is customary to use several specialized methods that simplify the procedure and lead to more accurate results.

Methods for evaluating management decisions

In the process of assessing the effectiveness of management decisions, seven main methods are used:

Index method. It is used to analyze the most complex phenomena with non-measurable elements. Indices here play the role of relative indicators. They help to assess how planned targets are being fulfilled and to determine the dynamics of various processes and phenomena. The index method is designed to help decompose the generalized indicator into factors of relative and absolute deviations.
Balance method. Its essence lies in the fact that the interrelated indicators of the organization's work are compared. The goal is to determine the influence of individual factors and find reserves for increasing the company's efficiency. The interrelation of individual indicators is represented by the equality of the results that are obtained after certain comparisons.
Elimination method. It summarizes the first two methods and offers an opportunity to determine the impact of any one factor on the overall performance of the company. This assumes that all other factors functioned in the same environment - according to plan.
Graphic method. It is a way of visually presenting the work of an organization, determining a set of indicators and formalizing the results of the analytical activities performed.
Comparison method. It offers the possibility of assessing the work of the company, identifying deviations of the actual indicators from the baseline values, establishing their causes and searching for reserves for further improvement of activities.
Functional cost analysis. It can be called a method of systemic research, applied based on the purpose of the object of study. Its task is to increase the beneficial effect (return) of the total costs for life cycle object. A distinctive feature is that the method allows you to establish the appropriateness of a number of functions that will be performed by the designed object in a specific environment, as well as to check the need for some functions of an object that already exists.
Economic and mathematical methods. They are used when it is required to choose the optimal options that determine the specifics of management decisions in the current or expected economic conditions. There are many problems that are solved by economic and mathematical methods. Among them, establishing the best range of products to be produced, evaluating the production plan, comparative analysis economic efficiency of the use of resources, optimization of the production program and others.

The effectiveness of the organization's work is greatly influenced by management decisions. This is the reason why it is important to master the management apparatus, theory and practice of developing and implementing solutions as much as possible. This means that you need to have the skill of choosing the best alternative among several options.

Any management decisions are subject to the reliability and completeness of the available data. Therefore, they can be accepted both under conditions of certainty and under conditions of uncertainty.

Making managerial decisions as a process is a cyclical sequence of actions of a responsible person to resolve urgent problems... These actions are to analyze the situation, develop possible ways decisions, selection and implementation of the best one.

Practice shows that decision-making at any level is subject to errors. This is influenced by many reasons, tk. economic development includes a large number of very different situations that need to be resolved.

Special place Among the reasons why management decisions turn out to be ineffective is non-compliance or banal ignorance of the technology of their generation and subsequent implementation. And for this it is customary to use theoretical information, methods and techniques that we talked about in previous lessons.

All of the above, of course, describes only the basic prerequisites for assessing the effectiveness of management decisions. To apply them correctly in practice, you must either have an appropriate education, or immerse yourself in the study of specialized literature, because there is a huge amount of subtleties, nuances, techniques and purely technical data that need to be studied, assimilated and mastered. This lesson can serve as a starting point for further delving into the specifics of assessing the effectiveness of management decisions.

In conclusion of our course, I would like to highlight one more topic, knowledge in which is simply necessary for taking correct decisions in life, education and work. This is a topic for the psychology of decision making. And we will consider it from the perspective of Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and one of the founders of behavioral finance and psychological economic theory. In his explanation of the irrational attitude of people to risk in managing their behaviors and making decisions, he combines cognitive science and economics. Kahneman's ideas will greatly help you to improve your effectiveness.

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Most economic models assume that people are, on average, rational, and most of them act according to their preferences. However, there is a concept that corrects these assumptions and takes into account the fact that ideal rational solutions are often practically impossible due to the difficulty of controlling the problems that need to be solved. Bounded rationality is an idea that describes a person's limited rationality in making decisions in accordance with the cognitive limitations of the individual and the time available for making decisions. This assumes that the decision maker will always make his decisions satisfactory, not ideal, since people are always looking for a satisfactory solution instead of looking for the best solution within the available information.

Many modern studies in the humanities, economic, political and related sciences indicate that most people are only partially rational, because man by nature does not follow the whole logic of rational decision-making. The decision is the essence of the administrative process and its main tool for achieving goals. Its content reflects the expectations of the future, which depend on the effectiveness of institutions in the first place, and on the effectiveness of managers in making decisions. In a world of globalization, intense competition and technological development, the decision must become an effective basis for management to play its role in investing in technological development, in meeting the needs of the environment in the digital age.

A rational decision-making model assumes the ability of the responsible person to clearly identify the problem and ensure that there is no conflict of goals. The decision maker usually has a clear order of preference. These preferences are unambiguous and at the same time not subject to binding constraints in terms of time and cost.

Although managers try to accept best solutions, but their rational assumptions in many realistic situations do not materialize, because problems are often complex and ambiguous, goals are unclear, and there are too many alternatives. Money, emotions, and multiple human qualities also reduce the scope for potential optimal choices based on rational preferences. This is confirmed by Herbert Simon, one of the most famous scientists in the field of decision making and analysis of human behavior.

Simon divides humanitarian solutions into four main types according to four criteria:

1 - the purpose of the solution;

2 - interest in the solution;

3 - the nature of the problem;

4 - corporate or personal.

Environment plays a key role in making decisions on humanitarian issues. The environment is divided into three main types:

1. Environment of certainty.

2. The environment of the unknown.

3. Environment at risk.

In connection with the technical and cognitive progress, in the modern era, scientists note that when the decision-making environment was simple, and its changes were slow, there was one mechanism for making managerial and other decisions. But now the environment has become so complex that today it is even difficult to provide the person in charge of making management decisions with complete information. All this forces decision-makers to make often far from rational management decisions.

Humanitarian solutions depend on a complex interplay of situational, psychological, intellectual, cultural, environmental and sensory causes interacting with each other. These reactions lead to far from rational decisions. Human emotions are also an important element in making different solutions... It is they who, often, determine these levels of their rationality.

Although many believe that intuition is an unscientific and irrational means of making decisions, the results of many studies carried out in this regard have confirmed the effectiveness of intuition in making managerial decisions, i.e. the significance of human emotions in making managerial and other decisions. An intuitive decision, according to scientists, is a decision that arises from a person's ability to use simultaneously information coming from the left and right hemispheres of the human brain, i.e. make a decision that results from a mixture of facts and feelings.

In the course of the evolution of human science, several theories have emerged that examine human behavior from the point of view of its rationality. The most important of these is rational choice theory. This theory is based on three main assumptions: methodological individualism, deductive approach, and reinforced judgment. The most important area of application of this theory is the study of political science in the context of electoral decisions and building alliances of various subjects of politics. The fact that people are rational in their choices means that they make decisions based on a balanced calculation that takes into account losses and profits. A reasonable person always considers different options in accordance with their priorities. He chooses the most important options based on his own irrational considerations.

Emotion plays a very important role in how a person behaves. The reaction and his behavior, whether rational or not, equally distinguish one person from another according to the emotions of each person. In modern psychology, it is unambiguously recognized that people behave unpredictably and may not always be rational. This is also confirmed by ancient and modern philosophical theories and philosophers of various schools of thought, from ancient Greek philosophy to modern philosophy. Feelings and meaning are what makes a person a person. And this substantiates the thesis that a person does not always act rationally.

Based on the above, it can reasonably be argued that behavioral economic theory as a whole, it is a logical analytical structure that has proven its fruitfulness in the study and management of various economic phenomena. However, it is premature to state that we are dealing with an established and well-established system of concepts and views. But this is a matter of time. Behavioral economics is not just a link between economics and psychology, it is a new level economic science using psychology as a tool.

Thanks to behavioral economics, neoclassical theory is becoming even more in demand, as it is enriched by one of the most modern research approaches - behavioral economics. The award of the Nobel Prize to Richard Thaler signifies that behavioral economics is officially recognized as the future of economics. On its basis, leading economists will be able to create economic models that will allow economic agents, incl. and states, to more successfully predict and build on the basis of these forecasts their more rational behavior taking into account the irrational component of the mechanism for making managerial decisions.

Bibliography

1. / Electronic resource / http://www.open.edu/openlearn/money-anagement/money/economics/do- people-really-behave-rational-way. (date of treatment 11/10/2017).

2. Electronic Journal of Sociology (2003) ISSN: 1198 3655 Human Rational Behavior and Economic Rationality, MilanZafirovski.

3. Herbert A. Simon / Electronic resource / http://www.cs.cmu.edu/simon/ (access date 11.11.2017).

4. Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science, Herbert A. Simon, The American Economic Review, Vol. 49, No. 3, 1959.pp. 253-283.

5. Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy. / Electronic resource / http://wikisum.com/w/Downs:_An_economic_theory_of_democracy (access date 10.11.2017).

6. Locke’s psychological theory of personal identity, JeffSpeaks, 2006.

A quality solution is a fundamental success factor and a powerful tool in the movement of any business. And if one person has a solution "in his pocket" for a long time, then another applies this tool with lightning speed, which is more effective for business and life in general. Below I will give examples of the most capacious and competent ways of learning how to make decisions quickly, without losing the quality of the result.

What is the solution?

The decision is almost always a risk, but it is definitely moving on. This is an important step out of statics, analysis and weighing. Refusal to act is an indicator that your decision has not been made, which means that the result is postponed for a while. It will be much more productive not to think over the decision, senselessly driving back and forth its causes, consequences and consequences, but to evaluate it from the outside according to some structural criteria and start acting. So let's get down to business.

If the decision really matters to your career, startup, and leap forward, then act now. The assessment of the importance of the decision is directly related to the urgency of its adoption. By the way, read our book "From Urgent to Important" by Steve McCletchey in the spirit of this point. It has a lot of great advice on how to really effectively build relationships with importance.

Write down the steps of the solution

Don't act randomly. It can take up a lot of time, add up on stupid directions, affect the drive at work, and ultimately weaken you altogether. Make a clear, capacious plan of the necessary steps, write them down on paper, and once again soberly assess whether this is what you wanted to formulate. Rewrite if necessary, but don't delay it.

Don't perfection

Perfectionists are at great risk of dying poor. Often they are so paralyzed by the race for the perfect embodiment of the result that the decision can only be made in their next life. Accept for yourself the fact that no one will give you guarantees and perfectly outlined mega-successful results of the case. Remember that the Pareto principle says: "20% of the effort gives 80% of the result, and the remaining 80% of the effort is only 20% of the result." By the way, I recommend exploring seven strategies for curbing perfectionism in our book Better than Perfection.

Set clear deadlines

The exact dates and boundaries set aside for actions will work cool for you and help to consolidate your volitional decision in real conditions. Such a kind of declaration as a timer will help you not to drag out, not to be sprayed, not to be lazy and to rely on a time frame for your own result. It will add confidence in yourself and in your business. Agree that a person who is responsible and executive first of all in front of himself is almost always an excellent example of the leader of any project.

Management solution- this is a choice that a manager must make in order to fulfill the duties determined by his position (the choice of an alternative carried out by the manager within the framework of his official authority and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization). Decision making is the foundation of management. Responsibility for making important management decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially pronounced at the highest levels of management.

Solution is the choice of an alternative. Every day we make hundreds of decisions without even thinking about how we do it. The fact is that the price of such decisions, as a rule, is not high, and this price is determined by the subject who made them. Of course, there are a number of problems related to relationships between people, health, family budget, the unsuccessful solution of which can lead to far-reaching consequences, but this is more the exception than the rule.
However, in management, decision-making is a more systematic process than in private life.

The main differences between management decisions and decisions in private life.

1. Objectives... The subject of management (be it an individual or a group) makes a decision based not on his own needs, but in order to solve the problems of a particular organization.

2. Consequences. The individual's private choice affects his own life and can affect the few people close to him.

A manager, especially a high-ranking one, chooses a course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization as a whole and its employees, and his decisions can significantly affect the lives of many people. If an organization is large and influential, the decisions of its leaders can seriously affect the socio - economic situation of entire regions. For example, the decision to close an unprofitable company can significantly increase the unemployment rate.

3. Division of labor. If in private life a person, making a decision, as a rule, does it himself, then in the organization there is a certain division of labor: some employees (managers) are busy solving emerging problems and making decisions, while others (executors) are engaged in the implementation of decisions already made.

4. Professionalism. In private life, each person independently makes decisions by virtue of their intelligence and experience. In managing an organization, decision making is a much more complex, responsible and formalized process that requires vocational training... Not every employee of the organization, but only those who have certain professional knowledge and the skills are empowered to make certain decisions on their own.

Several stages precede making a decision:

the emergence of problems on which it is necessary to make a decision;

development and formulation of alternatives;

selection of the optimal alternative from their sets;

approval (adoption) of a decision;

organization of work on the implementation of the solution - feedback

Classification of management decisions

Depending on the basis on which the decision is made, there are:

intuitive solutions;
decisions based on judgments;
rational decisions.

Intuitive solutions. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of the feeling that it is correct. The decision-maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons for each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice. What we call insight or "sixth sense" are intuitive decisions. Management specialist Peter Schoderbeck points out that “while more information about an issue can provide significant decision-making support to middle managers, the upper echelons of government still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to pay more attention to data, but do not cancel the time-honored management intuitive know-how. "

Judgment based decisions. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive because their logic is not obvious. Judgment decision is a choice driven by knowledge or past experience. A person uses knowledge of what happened in similar situations earlier to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the existing situation. Using common sense, he chooses an alternative that has been successful in the past. However, common sense is rare in humans, so this method of making decisions is also not very reliable, although it captivates with its speed and cheapness.

When, for example, you choose whether to study a management training program or an accounting training program, you are most likely making a judgment-based decision based on your experience in introductory courses in each subject.

Judgment as a basis for management decision is useful because many situations in organizations tend to be subdued frequently. In this case, the previously made decision can work again no worse than before, which is the main advantage of the programmed decisions.

Another weakness is that the judgment cannot be correlated with a situation that did not take place before, and therefore there is simply no experience of solving it. In addition, with this approach, a leader seeks to act mainly in those directions that are familiar to him, as a result of which he risks missing out on a good result in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it.

Rational solutions based on methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the personal characteristics it is customary to distinguish between the manager making the decision:

balanced solutions;
and impulsive solutions;
inert solutions;
risky decisions;
careful decisions.

Balanced solutions accept managers who are careful and critical of their actions, hypotheses and their testing. They usually have an initial idea formulated before making a decision.

Impulsive decisions, whose authors easily generate a wide variety of ideas in an unlimited number, but are not able to properly check, clarify, evaluate them. Therefore, decisions turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable;

Inert solutions become the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so in such decisions it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation.

Risky decisions differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need to thoroughly substantiate their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, may not be afraid of any dangers.

Cautious decisions characterized by a thorough assessment of all options by the manager, a supercritical approach to business. They are, to an even lesser extent than inert, distinguished by novelty and originality.

The types of decisions that depend on the personal characteristics of the manager are characteristic mainly in the process of operational personnel management.

For strategic and tactical management in any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions are made based on the methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the degree of preliminary formalization, there are:

programmed solutions;
unprogrammed solutions.

Programmed solution is the result of the implementation of a certain sequence of steps or actions. As a rule, the number of possible alternatives is limited and the choice must be made within the directions given by the organization.

For example, the head of the purchasing department of a production association, when scheduling the procurement of raw materials and materials, can proceed from a formula that requires a certain ratio between the planned production volume and the number of raw materials and materials for the production of a unit. finished products... If the budget stipulates that the production of a unit of production is spent2 kg of raw materials and materials, then the decision is made automatically - the planned volume of production is 1000 pieces, therefore it is necessary to purchase 2,000 kg of raw materials.

Similarly, if from the boss finance department demanded to invest excess cash in certificates of deposit, municipal bonds or ordinary shares, depending on what exactly provides the greatest return on invested capital at a given time, the choice is determined by the results of a simple calculation for each option and the establishment of the most profitable one.

Programming can be considered an important aid in making effective management decisions. By determining what the solution should be, management reduces the chance of error. It also saves time, since subordinates do not have to develop a new correct procedure every time the appropriate situation arises.

Unsurprisingly, management often programs solutions for situations that recur at regular intervals.

It is very important for a manager to have confidence that the decision-making procedure is, in fact, correct and desirable. Obviously, if the programmed procedure becomes incorrect and undesirable, the decisions made with its help will be ineffective, and management will lose the respect of their employees and those outside the organization who are affected by the decisions. Moreover, in the highest degree it is advisable to inform those who use this methodology about the rationale for the methodology for making programmed decisions, rather than simply suggest it for use. Failure to answer questions starting with “why” in relation to a decision-making procedure often creates tension and offends the people who must use the procedure. Effective exchange of information improves the efficiency of decision making.

Unprogrammed solutions. Solutions of this type are required in situations that are to some extent new, not internally structured, or involve unknown factors. Since it is impossible to draw up a specific sequence of necessary steps in advance, the manager must develop a procedure for making a decision. Unprogrammed solutions include the following types of solutions:

what should be the goals of the organization;
how to improve products;
how to improve the structure of the management unit;
how to increase the motivation of subordinates.

In each of these situations (as is most often the case with unprogrammed solutions), any of the factors can be the true cause of the problem. At the same time, the manager has many options to choose from.

In practice, few management decisions turn out to be programmed or unprogrammed in their pure form.

Most likely, they are extreme displays of a certain spectrum in the case of both everyday and fundamental decisions. Almost all solutions fall somewhere between the extreme options.

Requirements for solutions

the minimum number of adjustments;
balance of the rights and obligations of the manager making the decision - responsibility should be equal to his powers;
unity of management - the decision (or order) must come from the immediate leader. In practice, this means that a higher-level leader should not give orders "over the head" of a lower-level leader;
strict responsibility - management decisions should not contradict each other;
validity - the management decision should be made on the basis of reliable information about the state of the object, taking into account the tendencies of its development;
concreteness;
authority - a managerial decision must be made by a body or person entitled to make it;
timeliness - the management decision must be timely, because the delay in the decision drastically reduces the effectiveness of management.

Conditions for a quality solution

application of scientific management approaches to the development of management solutions;
study of the influence of economic laws on the effectiveness of management decisions;
providing the decision-maker with high-quality information characterizing the parameters of "exit", "entry", " external environment"And" process "of the solution development system;
application of methods of functional and cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and business case every decision;
structuring the problem and building a tree of goals;
ensuring comparability (comparability) of solution options;
providing multivariate solutions;
legal validity of the decision taken;
automation of the process of collecting and processing information, the process of developing and implementing solutions;
development and functioning of a system of responsibility and motivation for high-quality and effective solutions;
availability of a solution implementation mechanism.

A solution is considered effective if:

1. It starts with real goals.

2. For its implementation there is the necessary time and the necessary resources.

3. It can be implemented in the specific context of the organization.

4. Abnormal, emergency situations are provided.

5 it doesn't provoke conflict situations and stress.

6. Changes in the business and background environment are foreseen.

7. It makes it possible to exercise control over execution.

One of important factors influencing the quality of management decisions is the number of management levels in the organization, an increase in which leads to distortion of information in the preparation of a decision, distortion of orders coming from the subject of management, increases the sluggishness of the organization. The same factor contributes to the delay of information received by the subject of the decision. This determines the constant striving to reduce the number of levels of management in the organization.

A serious problem associated with the effectiveness of management decisions is also the problem of implementing these decisions. Up to a third of all management decisions do not achieve their goals due to a low performing culture. In our and foreign countries, sociologists belonging to a wide variety of schools pay close attention to improving the performing discipline, including ordinary employees in developing solutions, motivating such activities, fostering “corporate patriotism”, and stimulating self-government.

Decision-making levels

The differences in the types of solutions and the differences in the difficulty of the problems to be solved determine the level of decision-making.

M. Woodcock and D. Francis distinguish four levels of decision-making, each of which requires certain management skills: routine, selective, adaptive, innovative.

The first level is routine... Decisions made at this level are routine decisions. As a rule, the manager has a certain program, how to recognize the situation, what decision to make. In this case, the manager behaves like a computer. Its function is to "feel" and identify the situation, and then take responsibility for the beginning of certain actions. The leader must have a flair, correctly interpret the existing indications of a particular situation, act logically, make the right decisions, show decisiveness, and provide effective action at the right time. This level does not require any creativity, as all actions and procedures are prescribed in advance.

The second level is selective. This level already requires initiative and freedom of action, but only within certain limits. The manager is faced with a range of possible solutions, and the task is to evaluate the merits of such solutions and select from a number of well-developed alternative sets of actions those that best suit the problem. Success and performance depend on the manager's ability to choose a course of action.

The third level is adaptation. The manager must come up with a solution that may be completely new. The leader is faced with a set of proven capabilities and some new ideas. Only personal initiative and the ability to break through into the unknown can determine the success of a manager's activity.

The fourth level, the most difficult, is innovative. The most difficult problems are solved at this level. A completely new approach is required on the part of the manager. It may be looking for a solution to a problem that was previously poorly understood or that requires new ideas and methods to solve. The leader must be able to find ways to understand completely unexpected and unpredictable problems, develop the ability and ability to think in a new way. The most modern and difficult problems may require the creation of a new branch of science or technology for their solution.

Optimization of management decisions

The most common methods for optimizing management decisions are:

mathematical modeling;
method of expert assessments;
brainstorming method ( brain attack);
game theory.

Mathematical modeling they are used in cases where a management decision is made on the basis of extensive digital information that can be easily formalized. The widespread use of mathematical models allows one to give a quantitative characterization of the problem and find the best option for its solution.

The main stages of optimization of management decisions using mathematical methods are:

Formulation of the problem.

The choice of an efficiency criterion, which should be expressed unambiguously, for example, by a certain number, and reflect the measure of the correspondence of the results of the solution to the set goal.

Analysis and measurement of variables (factors) affecting the value of the efficiency criterion.

Building a mathematical model.

Mathematical solution of the model.

Logical and experimental verification of the model and the solution obtained with its help.

Expert assessment methods are used in cases where the problem is completely or partially defies formalization and cannot be solved by mathematical methods.

The method of expert assessments is a study of complex special issues at the stage of developing a managerial decision by persons with special knowledge and experience in order to obtain conclusions, opinions, recommendations and assessments. The expert opinion is drawn up in the form of a document in which the progress of the study and its results are recorded. The introduction specifies: who, where, when and in connection with what organizes and conducts the examination. Further, the object of the examination is fixed, the methods used for the study are indicated, and the data obtained as a result of the study. The final part contains conclusions, recommendations and practical measures proposed by the experts.

The most effective application of the method of expert assessments in the analysis of complex processes, which mainly have qualitative characteristics, in predicting development trends trading system, when evaluating alternative solutions.

Brainstorming method(brainstorming) is used in cases where there is a minimum of information about the problem being solved and a short time frame is set for its solution. Then specialists are invited, related to this problem, they are invited to participate in a forced discussion of its solution. In this case, the following rules are strictly observed:

everyone speaks in turn;

speak only when they can offer a new idea;

statements are not criticized or condemned;

all proposals are recorded.

Usually this method allows you to quickly and correctly solve the problem that has arisen.

A variation of the brainstorming method is jury opinion. The essence of this method is that experts from various fields of activity, interacting with each other, are involved in the discussion of the problem. For example, managers of the production, commercial and financial departments of the firm are involved in the decision to release a new product. The application of this method contributes to the generation of new ideas and alternative options.

One of the methods for optimizing management decisions in conditions market competition is the use of the methods used in game theory, the essence of which is to model the impact of the decision made on competitors. For example, if the management of a trading firm uses game theory to conclude that competitors will not do the same if the price of goods rises, then it may be wise to abandon the decision to raise prices to avoid being at a competitive disadvantage.

Methods for optimizing managerial decisions can complement each other and be used in a complex manner in the development of important managerial decisions.

The choice of methods for optimizing management decisions largely depends on information support management.

Many Japanese companies used the “ringisei” decision-making system to some extent, providing in-depth study and coordination of decisions.

The classical “ringisei” procedure provided for multiple approval of the prepared solution at several management levels, starting with ordinary employees (one of them is entrusted with drawing up a preliminary draft of the solution) and ending with top managers who approve the solution that has passed all the approval stages. Coordination includes consultations at the level of ordinary employees of various departments (they are carried out by an employee responsible for preparing a preliminary draft decision), at the level of heads of departments and other departments (carried out in the form of circulation of a draft decision in all departments related to this issue), and then more high leaders - deputies and heads of departments or departments. By the end of the circulation, the document-project is endorsed with the personal seals of dozens of chiefs of various ranks. In case of disagreement during the preparation of a decision at one level or another, consultative meetings of the heads of the corresponding level are convened, during which an agreed position is developed. This practice of preparing decisions is rather complicated and time-consuming, but most Japanese corporations are slowing down decision-making in this way, hoping that the ringisei procedure, which ensures coordination of actions at the decision-making stage, facilitates the coordination of their subsequent implementation.

The system has unconditional advantages. However, it is not devoid of some drawbacks. It is believed that the procedure should ensure the flow of new ideas and freedom of opinion when discussing solutions. But this is not always the case. Sometimes, in conditions of strict hierarchy and respect for the authorities, such a process boils down to the attempts of subordinates to predict the opinion of the leaders, rather than to the promotion of their independent point of view. In this form, the "ringisei" system often turned into a complex and not always useful mechanism, which took a lot of time from managers and employees of different ranks to agree on decisions.

Therefore, the sphere of influence of the ringisei decision-making method is gradually decreasing. This is due to a number of reasons, including the widespread use of planning and budgeting methods in Japanese firms (due to this, the need to make decisions on many issues by the traditional method has disappeared). Considering that long-term planning is reportedly used by 83% of Japanese firms, the scale of such changes is quite tangible. Powers strengthened at 63% of Japanese firms individuals on decision-making, which again led to a reduction in the scope of "ringisei". By 1974, 4% of Japanese companies had liquidated the ringisei system altogether.

Rational solutions Are those that are justified by means of an objective analytical process. They have certain stages.

1) Diagnosing the problem... This is the first step, i.e. it is the definition or diagnosis of the problem. A problem is a situation when the set goals are not achieved.

It is difficult to fully define the problem conceived because all parts of the organization are interconnected. As they say, correctly identifying a problem means half solving it, but this is difficult to apply to organizational decisions. As a result, diagnosing a problem in itself often becomes a multi-step procedure with intermediate decisions.

The first phase in diagnosing a complex problem is recognizing and identifying the symptoms of difficulties ... The term "symptom" is used here in a completely medical sense. Some common symptoms of an organization's illness are low profit margins, sales, productivity and quality, excessive costs, multiple organizational conflicts, and high turnover. However, just like headache may serve as a symptom of overwork or brain tumor, a general symptom such as low profitability is due to many factors. Therefore, it is generally advisable to avoid taking immediate action to resolve the symptom, as some leaders tend to do. The leader must go deep into the essence of the matter to identify the reasons for the inefficiency of the organization. A common mistake some managers make is the habit of scolding workers for low productivity and low profits: managers cannot see others possible reasons e.g. the impact of material costs and overheads, etc. As a result, companies unnecessarily invest in productivity plans and lay off workers.

To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external (relative to the organization) information. Such information can be collected on the basis of formal methods, using, for example, market analysis outside the organization, and inside it - computer analysis of financial statements, interviews, inviting management consultants or surveys of employees. Information can also be collected informally by conducting conversations about the current situation and making personal observations.

However, increasing the amount of information does not necessarily improve the quality of the solution. Therefore, in the course of observation, it is important to distinguish between relevant and irrelevant information and to be able to distinguish one from the other. Relevant information is data relating only to a specific problem, person, purpose and time period.

2) Formulation of constraints and decision criteria... When a manager diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done about it. Corrective action constraints limit decision making options.

Some common limitations are inadequacy of funds; insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience; inability to purchase resources at affordable prices; the need for technology not yet developed or too expensive; extremely intense competition; laws and ethical considerations. Typically, there are fewer constraints for a large organization than for a small or complex one.

A significant limitation of all management decisions, although sometimes completely removable, is the narrowing of the powers of all members of the organization determined by the top management.

In addition to identifying constraints, the leader needs to define the standards against which alternatives are to be judged. These standards are commonly referred to as decision criteria. For example, when deciding to buy a car, you can focus on the criterion of cost - no more than 10 thousand dollars, economy - at least 20 km per liter of gasoline, capacity - five adults at a time, attractiveness and good characteristics in terms of service.

3) Identifying alternatives- formulation of a set of alternative solutions to the problem. It should be borne in mind that considering a very large number of alternatives, even if all of them are realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the manager usually limits the number of options for serious consideration to only a few alternatives that seem most desirable.

Leaders understand that finding the best solution is too time-consuming, costly, or difficult. Instead, they choose a solution that will solve the problem.

The possibility of inaction can also be seen as an alternative.

Going back to our car example, you are now faced with a choice of several models that you think meet your criteria. Having selected the alternatives, it is necessary to evaluate them.

4) Assessment of alternatives... Research shows that both the quantity and quality of alternative ideas increases when the initial idea generation is separated from the evaluation of the final idea. This means that only after compiling a list of all ideas, one should proceed to evaluate each alternative.

Difficulties can arise at this stage, since it is impossible to compare things if they are not of the same type.

In the car example, all criteria can be expressed on a scale of 1 to 5 for both quantitative and qualitative factors. The least expensive car will be rated 5. and the most expensive - 1 point, etc., including economy and other requirements. Some of these criteria are probably more important than others. For example, you might consider visual appeal twice as important as price. If so, you should "weigh" your choice by multiplying your physical attractiveness by 2. Likewise, if your maintainability score is only 2/3 of the cost, you should multiply the serviceability score by 2/3. Having passed each criterion through this procedure, you should add the results for each model. The car by which overall assessment in points will be the highest, will be your obvious choice.

5) Choosing an alternative... If the problem has been correctly identified, and alternative solutions are carefully weighed and evaluated, it is relatively easy to make a choice, that is, to make a decision. However, if the problem is complex and many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if the information and analysis are subjective, it may happen that no alternatives are available. the best choice... In this case, good judgment and experience play a major role.

Although it is ideal for a manager to achieve the optimal solution, the manager, as a rule, does not dream about it in practice. Researcher Herbert Simon points out that when solving a problem, a leader leans towards behavior that he calls "satisfying" rather than "maximizing."

6) Implementation... The problem solving process does not end with the choice of an alternative. To solve a problem or capitalize on an existing opportunity, a solution must be implemented. Recognition of a decision is seldom automatic, however, even if it is clearly good.

More often, the leader is forced to convince other people in the organization of the correctness of his point of view, and the approach like “I'm the boss, you're a fool” today, in the world of educated people, as a rule, does not work.

The chances of effective implementation are greatly increased when the people involved have contributed to the solution and sincerely believe in what they are doing. Nevertheless, there are situations when employee participation in decision-making will not be effective in every situation.

7) Feedback ... Another phase entering the process of making a managerial decision and starting after the decision has taken effect is the establishment of feedback. Feedback, i.e. the receipt of data on what happened before and after the implementation of the decision - allows the head to adjust it while the organization has not yet suffered significant damage.

Our consideration of the stages of rational problem solving should serve as recommendations that can help you make better decisions as recommendations.